The arrival on the throne United Kingdom of Charles III has raised questions about how the monarch will combine independence aspirations in this territory and how this territory will accept the tutelage of the new king. But this won’t be the only one focus of tension with which the sovereign is going to meet: some of the former British colonies in the Caribbean are considering breaking with the monarchy and Australia He has already warned that calling a referendum on this issue is also on his medium-term agenda.
In Scotland, the chief minister, the nationalist Nicola Sturgeonannounced at the end of June its intention to hold a second independence referendum on October 19, 2023. Faced with the refusal of the Boris Johnson government, Sturgeon requested a opinion to the Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, which must decide whether Edinburgh has competencies to convene a consultation without the endorsement of the London Executive and the Westminster Parliament.
Experts doubt that the judges will give Sturgeon the green light. “It is very unlikely that the Supreme Court will conclude that holding a referendum is within the powers of the Scottish Parliament,” he explains to EL PERIÓDICO james mitchell, political analyst and Professor of Political Science at the University of Edinburgh. Sturgeon’s plan b is to raise the next general elections of the United Kingdom – which should be held at the end of 2024 if they are not brought forward – as a referendum de facto so that if the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) gets more than 50% of the vote, the result would constitute a mandate to negotiate independence. “Negotiations would require the UK government to accept the mandate and that is more than doubtful,” Mitchell warned.
support for the monarchy
In any case, a possible independence of Scotland would not automatically imply that this territory would disassociate itself from the monarchy. As proposed by former Scottish Chief Minister alex salmond for the 2014 consultation, the new country would have kept as head of state Isabel II and “Sturgeon will continue to emphasize his and his party’s support for the monarchy,” says the Edinburgh University professor. However, Mitchell points out that relations will be “formal and good as long as independence does not seem likely” and the new king does not statements that can cause a reaction. “There’s a republican element in the SNP and neither Sturgeon nor Carlos will want to promote it.
According to the latest survey, carried out in mid-August by Panelbase, 49% of Scots would support independence compared to 51% who would reject it. Support for the monarchy is much higher, judging by the YouGov survey data from last May: 42% of Scots believe it is good for the country and 22% bad.
As Mitchell mentioned, the key to Scotland’s new relations with Charles III will be in what the monarch says and does. According to the constitutional role of the sovereign of the United Kingdom, it must maintain political neutrality. Her mother remained faithful to this precept, although, according to media such as ‘The Scotsman’, on two occasions she hinted at her rejection of a split from Scotland. The first, in 1977, on the occasion of the silver jubilee, when she recalled the union benefits a day after the SNP made significant gains in local elections. The second, the Sunday before the 2014 referendum when he assured: “I hope people think very carefully about the future“.
Commonwealth, in danger?
But beyond Scotland, where the king has been very present these days on the occasion of the farewell acts of Elizabeth II, who died at Balmoral Castle last Thursday and whose coffin arrived in Edinburgh this Sunday, the most immediate problems may come from some members of the Commonwealth, the commonwealth of nations created in the wake of the collapse of the British Empire and that encompasses 54 independent and semi-independent sovereign countries.
Prime Minister of Old and beardedGaston Browne, announced this Sunday his intention to hold a referendum to decide whether to become republic “in the next three years” if he is re-elected in 2023. “This is not an act of hostility (…), it is the final step to complete that circle of independence, to ensure that we are truly a sovereign nation,” Browne explained. in an interview with the English television network ITV.
Related news
Antigua and Barbuda gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1981 but is one of 15 Commonwealth countries, including the United Kingdom, that have the British monarch as head of state. Jamaica is another of these territories. During the “disastrous” official trip made by the current Princes of Wales, William and Catherine, last March, when the couple had to face protests over the slave past of the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister, Andrew Holness, affirmed that the country is taking steps towards a republican regime. It’s an “inevitable” transition, she stressed. Y Australia He also has in his plans to call a referendum on the monarchy, although the head of the Executive, the Republican Anthony Albanese, stated in an interview on Sky News that this will take place in the event that he is re-elected in the next elections.
The path started by Barbados last November, when it became a republic, 55 years after achieving independence from the United Kingdom “is the sign that the pressure for change is reaching a critical moment,” said David Olusoga, a professor at the University of Manchester, in ‘The Observer’ on Sunday. “There is no escape from history for either the new monarch or the Commonwealth, the institution by which the late queen did so much, for so long, to hold it together.”