For the first time, the chance that the average temperature on earth will warm more than the symbolic 1.5 degrees in the next five years is greater than the chance that it won’t. This is stated in a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). La Niña and El Niño are also part of that.
Up to and including 2027, there is a 66 percent chance that the average temperature will be 1.5 degrees higher than before the industrial era. Scientists from the WMO warn against this. A year ago, the umbrella organization of the United Nations estimated that chance at just under 50 percent. The WMO specializes in weather, climate and water and identifies this risk annually in a global climate update.
The chance that the earth will warm up less than 1.5 degrees is therefore getting smaller. In any case, that limit of 1.5 degrees is symbolic, even temporary warming can already cause serious climate risks.
Not forever
If that mark of 1.5 degrees is exceeded in one of the coming years, that does not necessarily mean that it will be forever, WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas emphasizes. “However, the WMO is sounding the alarm: we will increasingly exceed the limit of 1.5 degrees.” According to a scientist from the UK’s Met Office, global temperatures will continue to rise “driving us further and further away from the climate we are accustomed to”.
The WMO insists that this does not necessarily mean that the Paris climate agreement would prove useless. According to the scientists, it is still possible to slow down global warming by drastically reducing harmful emissions.
La Nina
What contributes to the warming is that the natural phenomenon La Niña ended at the end of March. This reduces the cooling effect on the Pacific Ocean, while this has kept warming somewhat under control over the past three years, according to the WMO. It is expected that the ‘little brother’ of the natural phenomenon, El Niño, will soon be around the corner. This actually warms the water, which could lead to warmer temperatures in 2024.
In 2016, greenhouse gas emissions and an exceptionally strong El Niño also set a temperature record. According to the WMO, there is a 98 percent chance that those temperatures will be higher in the next five years, breaking the record.
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