Since the pandemic began, Saint John has marked a inflection point on the evolution of covid-19 in Catalonia. Last year, the Government lifted the restrictions at the gates of June 23. This, together with the celebration of music festivals, end-of-year parties and, above all, to the appearance of the delta variant (much more transmissible than the previous ones, but less than the omicron), set up a explosive cocktail that greatly increased infections and that, in early July, led the authorities to close the nightlife again already approve a curfew that would last all summer.
But there were already precedents. A year earlier, in what was the first pandemic summer, Catalonia celebrated the verbena in the phase 3 of the de-escalation: there were no massive acts, the private parties were limited to groups of 20 people and the organized ones, to 80 (in closed stalls) and 800 (outdoors). However, also at the beginning of July, the Government decreed the perimeter closure of Segrià (the region of Lleida), where the very high transmission of the virus brought out the unhealthy conditions in which seasonal workers lived. A few weeks later, the restrictions were moved to L’Hospitalet de Llobregat and Barcelona.
This year, the situation is different. And it is thanks, essentially, to the anticovid vaccine. In Catalonia, a 86.1% of those over 12 years of age have the complete guideline, according to the Ministry of Health (last year around this time, Salut was beginning to vaccinate thirty-somethings). However, although the general feeling is that the covid-19 pandemic already belongs to the past, the virus keeps advancing. It does so stealthily, with hardly any masks, between music festivals and warm welcomes to mass tourism. And, like last year, with the BA.5, a new subvariant of the omicron that is more contagious and that, according to the Computational Biology and Complex Systems Group (Biocomsc) of the Polytechnic University of Catalonia (UPC), is already majority in Catalonia.
That the virus is advancing is reflected in the epidemiological data, despite the fact that the figures offered by the health authorities are no longer as reliable as before. There are many infections that are not being counted. And for this reason, in this context, data from communities such as Canary Islands or Madrid, where the cumulative incidence in the last 14 days in people over 70 years of age, it exceeds one thousand cases per 100,000 inhabitants (in Catalonia it is 748.48 cases among those between 70 and 79 years of age and 877.22 in those over 80, according to the latest data from the Ministry of Health, Last Tuesday).
More hospitalizations
The most reliable indicator remains that of hospital occupation. In Catalonia hospitalizations increased yesterday to 1,517 patients, surpassing the barrier of 1,500, and also slightly the ucis, standing at 40 seriously ill throughout the territory. It is true that the figures are far from those of previous waves, but this Steady rise for weeks now It reflects that the pandemic is still there. And it suggests, with the experience of the two previous summers in hand, that this Sant Joan can pose a problem for epidemiological control.
“We are seeing that the increases in infections coincide with large gatherings of people points out the member of the Spanish Society of Epidemiology (SEE) Joan Cayla. Gone is Barcelona leaving festivals like Primavera Sound or Sónar, which set attendance records this year. The tourist influx of the Catalan capital is already at pre-crisis levels. “Surprising there are no special recommendations [para estos días] Neither Health nor Health. Much emphasis should be placed on the epidemiological situation and it is not done,” complains Caylà, who has been stressing for some time that Spain should “improve the strategy” to control the virus. “It is foreseeable that after Sant Joan there will be an even greater increase in infections”, get moving.
Caylà claims to be “very worried” that “not much will be done” in this regard, since the pandemic “progresses” and, moreover, “increases”. The ‘conseller’ of Health, Joseph Maria Argimon, has made an appeal this Wednesday to the fragile population to “extreme a little” precautions against the increase of covid-19.
The investigator of Biocomsc Daniel Lopez-Codina He also believes that the coming days may further mark the rise of the virus. “Sant Joan can cause the incidence to continue to grow. But I don’t think we will reach chaos if we compare it with everything we have experienced. We are far from that,” says López-Codina. He is essentially committed to protecting the vulnerable people.
The new subvariant
López-Codina makes a comparison with June of last year, a month in which social interactions increase. “Just like last year, we have end-of-year parties, big festivals and a new variant: the BA.5, more contagious”, López-Codina points out. This translates into an “increase” in infections and incidence and, with them, hospitalizations and ICUs. According to Biocomsc, the BA.5 variant is also behind the increase in reinfections that are being produced.
The Biocomsc researcher also highlights that, for the third consecutive yearCatalonia “has not been spared from a complex situation” when Sant Joan arrived. “The mortality, for example, it is not negligible, although it is true that they are mostly older people who would also have died from the flu or a cold,” he says.
Related news
In fact, there is concern about contagion among older than 60 years, which are increasing strongly, according to data from the Agency for Quality and Health Assessment of Catalonia (Aquas). This is directly related to the slight increase in ICUs, since most of the serious admissions occur among people between 50 and 80 years of age. In the young population, as they do not go to the CAP because they do not have complications, there is an underdiagnosis of cases.
In addition, as the Biocomsc also warns, this is already having an impact on primary care centers (CAP). Visits to health centers have increased 30% in a week, according to Aquas.