The Government has spent weeks, months, without being able to escape from a downward spiral. The problems, the crises, were chaining. The minimum salvation of the labor reform and the anti-crisis decree, the war in Ukraine, the repeated clashes between the partners, Pegasus, the relentless inflation… And the disaster of the Andalusian elections of 19-J, of course. The ballot boxes that became a terrible ‘shock‘ of reality for the PSOE, but also for the space to its left. Just the big week of the NATO summit, at the end of June, served to reposition Pedro Sánchez, to polish and reinforce his international profile and project the image of Spain.
In Moncloa and in the party they are aware that something is wrong, although they are convinced that in the remaining year and a half of the legislature (“a lot or a little, depends on how it is administered”, recalled a socialist deputy) they will be able to relocate. Win the regional and municipal elections in May first and then the general ones. beat the polls that already place the PP first. That is why it is key to start recovering the initiative.
And the moment, they indicate, is now.
With the debate on the state of the nation, which starts this Tuesday in Congress and will continue this Thursday. The first in more than seven years. An appointment to which the president confers utmost importance, and that in his team, as Minister Félix Bolaños defended in this newspaper, they consider “an opportunity” to explain the measures adopted so far and those that remain to be taken. Sánchez will then pass “on the offensive”, to the “attack”, they anticipate theirs.
The president wants to send the message that his Executive continues to have as a premise the defense of the “middle and working classes”, and also of the most vulnerable
It is certain that he will announce “new economic measures & rdquor; and of another nature, as Bolaños also advanced to this newspaper, with which to be able to mark agenda and send the message that its Executive continues to have as a premise the defense of the “middle and working classes& rdquor ;, and also of the most vulnerable, of “those who suffer the most from the consequences of the war of [Vladímir] Putin & rdquor ;. A reinforced message after 19-J: it printed a turn to the left —the demobilization of the progressive bases was crucial in the result, according to Ferraz’s analysis— and denounced the pressure of “dark powers” and from the “economic & rdquor ;, “political & rdquor; and “media”. They will not “break” him, she warned.
In Moncloa they point out that the socialist leader wants to “raise the institutional profile of the debate, in front of a PP that only talks about the anecdote & rdquor ;, about whether Alberto Núñez Feijóo “is going to sit next to [su número dos] Cuca Gamarra & rdquor ;, since he is a senator, but not a deputy. Thus, Sánchez will confront the “social democratic model & rdquor; way out of the crisis, which “protects the social majority”, as happened “during the pandemic and now with the war”, against the conservative model of the PP, “which trimmed and left people to their fate & rdquor; when he had to manage the financial crisis that started in 2008.
? Tuesday starts the #DebateNation2022the 26th general policy debate since the approval of the Constitution and the first of the XIV Legislature.
We tell you how this debate unfolds, its background and its protagonists in this new space ?https://t.co/4xfAOP9ks5 pic.twitter.com/Wvs4XYjOw0
– Congress (@Congreso_Es) July 10, 2022
“Deep horizon & rdquor;
The president, they continue in his team, will also assert his roadmap of “transformation Y modernization of the country, and expansion of rights & rdquor ;, will provide “measures concrete” and it will establish “a horizon of depth for the legislature & rdquor ;. In other words, it will reiterate the idea that “there is much to do & rdquor; yet and that he will exhaust his mandate. Which will arrive in December 2023, definitely.
The Executive is going through the “most critical and crucial” moment of the legislature, although at least it has managed to unfreeze relations with ERC, important for its legislative agenda
But in the engine room of power they are not fooled. “This is the moment most critical and crucial of the legislature & rdquor ;, admits a minister. The polls that paint a PP on the rise continue, the feeling grows that the Executive’s management “does not penetrate & rdquor; and that “pedagogy” must be reinforced. Sánchez has managed to begin to unfreeze the relationship with ERC, a capital and necessary partner so that each vote in Congress does not become an agony. The dialogue is in the process of being normalized after Bolaños’ meeting with the ‘consellera’ Laura Vilagrà last Friday, a prelude to the one he himself will hold with Pere Aragonès in Moncloa on July 15.
The debate will serve to measure the temperature with the parliamentary partners. But also the cohesion of the Government itself. PSOE and United We Can are still at odds over the increase in military spending that Sánchez promised to NATO allies.
Political figures respond to Sánchez after attending the tribute to Miguel Ángel Blanco https://t.co/WoLF7xYcLZ pic.twitter.com/THllSXrNbs
– Europe Press TV (@europapress_tv) July 10, 2022
“The urgency was not so much & rdquor;
Last Tuesday, the Council of Ministers experienced an enormous “strain& rdquor ;, according to the account of several socialist ministers. Given that it was not possible to open a debate on the extraordinary credit of almost one billion euros for Defense (the issue was in the ‘green index’), Yolanda Díaz presented the complaint of the purples when the first procedure of the Government to move towards the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO. The second vice president, the only one who intervened from her space, directly confronted, was hard. So much so, continue the same sources, that surprised and annoyed the socialist wing and the president, who defends that the leadership of foreign policy is his exclusive domain and that he should not negotiate it with his partners.
The continuity of the coalition is not at stake right now, despite internal friction, and socialists and purples recognize it
The tension has dropped, but no date even for the pact follow-up commission. “It is seen that the urgency [de UP] It wasn’t that much & rdquor ;, ironically in Moncloa, slipping that Díaz sought the clash to mark profile three days before the launch of its platform, Sumar.
The coalition continuity is not in play right now. It is not raised by United We Can (“Nothing is going to break the Government, there is no alternative & rdquor ;, Díaz affirmed this same Sunday in ‘El País’), nor the Socialists, despite the continuous internal frictions and despite the greater concern that was appreciated in the party after the last clash. It is a debate without too many exits, since even after an early call for elections, which is not contemplated, Sánchez would still need the purple ones to continue in Moncloa. And the president’s priority is to continue with his reform agenda, for which he needs the support of the UP deputies.
The opportunity of the law of memory
The vote on the resolutions on Thursday, on the last day of debate, will also highlight the external supports of the government. They are motions of political orientation, but they will arrive just as a prelude to something that does matter, much more, to the Executive: the General State Budgets for 2023. The stumbling block of military spending lies with Sánchez within the coalition, but also outside of it with their left partners.
In the PSOE and in the Government there is expectation for the possible changes, but it is not yet known what movements Sánchez will make
The Socialists continue to display the variable geometry, although Bildu has come to occupy a central place in parliamentary alliances. The latest sample has been the democratic memory law, which will be voted on Thursday by the plenary session of Congress to continue its processing in the Senate. The pact with the nationalist left, highly criticized by the right (to the point that it clouded the institutional tribute to Miguel Ángel Blanco in Ermua, 25 years after his assassination by ETA), has also caused discomfort in some barons, like Castilian Manchego Emiliano Garcia-Page and the Aragonese Javier Lamban —both very far from Ferraz, however—, and in former president Felipe González. The moment to relaunch the norm, the close collaborators of the chief executive conceded this Sunday, perhaps had not turned out to be the most suitable. “they had to have seen it. It was going to happen & rdquor ;, they pointed out in the leadership of the PSE after the tribute in Ermua to the popular mayor killed by the gang.
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The nation’s debate also comes with a PSOE on alert. Changes are anticipated, but no one, not even the circle closest to Sánchez, knows for sure if there will be any, or in what direction they will go, or how deep they will be and if they will reach the government and the party or both (and also the group). This second long week of July maybe serve to provide clues. Just maybe. Already last year he made it clear that he seeks to surprise and that he does not listen to cabals. Nor to internal and external bets, no matter how much they run. “You have to measure everything well, see what fails and what doesn’t. Despite everything that has happened, we are at a 25% vote estimate. Not so bad, although we don’t trust each other & rdquor ;, they point out in Sánchez’s first ring of power.
And, above all, remembering our beloved Rubalcaba, we must prevent the heirs of the gang, who continue without condemning the murders, from imposing their story. The terrorists were nothing more than bloody murderers who wanted to end democracy and freedoms pic.twitter.com/1MKQ2o2TwS
– Javier Lambán (@JLambanM) July 10, 2022
For now, the socialist leader wants to turn the page and bang on the table to reverse trends. The danger is that the legislature has entered a point of no return. In Moncloa they are convinced that it is not.