The Government faces this Thursday the validation in Congress of the royal decree law of measures against the war in Ukraine, amid great uncertainty about the final outcome of the vote. The refusal of CKD to support it (except last minute turn) as punishment for the alleged espionage of pro-independence positions, through the Pegasus ‘software’, places the Executive very close to not being able to approve it. That is why last night he made an attempt to approach it with the announcement that he accepts to process it as a bill, to incorporate the contributions of other parliamentary groups. The doubts about the final result are so considerable that the Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchezcanceled his trip to Moldova and Poland to be present in the hemicycle. Not a single vote can fail.
This last step of the Executive – the offer to turn it into a bill – is also a request that the PP had made and that led to it being interpreted in some areas as a gesture to the main opposition party. But it is not their support, which Genoa conditions on the acceptance of some of its economic proposals, that the Government is seeking. The offer is addressed above all to EH Bildu and some small parties such as Teruel Exists or BNG, according to socialist sources.
Although until the vote, this noon, there are still hours to negotiate, the Executive and the PSOE were very pessimists with the possibility of convincing ERC, whose relationship with Moncloa is very deteriorated, despite the fact that they have been promised an internal investigation at the CNI. Both this and the activation of the official secrets commission, at the cost of changing majorities, have been unsuccessful and the Republicans are entrenched in no. Socialist sources point out that “Pere Aragonès has seen in this situation of tension with the Government the opportunity to eat Junts”.
For this reason, throughout the day, the efforts of the Executive and the PSOE were concentrated on get the vote of the ‘abertzales’, since, although one of its deputies has allegedly been spied on, it does not have the entity of the massive espionage denounced by the Catalan parties. If EH Bildu votes in favor, despite the fact that the ERC and the PP finally did so against, there would be a sum to reach more yeses than noes, with United We Can, More Country, Compromís, PNV, PRC, Teruel Exists, BNG and Nueva Canary Islands. In fact, this last party was convinced during the negotiations with the promise of processing the royal decree law as a bill. A decision that can also screw Teruel Exists, doubtful due to an issue included in the anti-crisis plan related to renewables.
It is a very high risk formula, since yes or yes, you need the support of EH Bildu and BNG. But the Government has concentrated on it the greatest chances of validating the decree and, according to government sources, they are “well aware” that the vote may be lost.
The other option, which Moncloa sees as remote, is a gifted abstention of the PP. Until now, the government has refused to seriously negotiate with the Popular Party because that would mean disarming its own parliamentary majority, already completely disarmed by the break with the ERC. Socialist sources also point out that the main opposition party is aware of the “weakness” that the Executive is going through, as a result of the ‘Pegasus case’ and that encourages the center-right formations, in unison, to overthrow the decree to issue a resounding defeat Sanchez. The impression in the PSOE is that the PP will vote no.
The PP: “It is insufficient”
The path of negotiation with the PP (its abstention seemed essential given the absolute discomfort of the Government’s partners and the confirmation of other groups such as Ciudadanos that they will vote against) was confirmed as sterile after the exchange of letters from the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, and the popular economic manager, Juan Bravo. To facilitate the approval of the decree, the PP demanded four points from its economic plan that had to be processed as a bill: the reduction of taxes on low and medium incomes, the reduction of VAT on electricity, measures to speed up the management of European funds and a rationalization of the government’s bureaucratic and political spending.
Montero responded, visibly upset by the “media pressure & rdquor; exercised by the conservatives by making her letter public, making it clear that she did not accept Feijóo’s economic plan. “You will understand that it requires a deep analysis because it is necessary to study the budgetary impact & rdquor ;, dispatched the head of the Treasury. Moncloa, in parallel, launched the announcement that the Government was committed to process the decree as a bill to incorporate group measures in the future.
But the PP disposal From the first moment that it was a wink towards his group, insisting that the process in Congress is “nothing & rdquor; if the four points are not specified in writing. “It is completely insufficient and the Government knows it”different sources from the PP national leadership explained to this newspaper late at night.
The deputy who will defend the popular position of the decree is Jaime de Olano. But many of his classmates insisted very late this Wednesday that “the direction of the vote had not yet been communicated & rdquor ;. In the surroundings of Feijóo they confirmed that the decision will be made on Thursday, even during the debate. And they concluded: “There is time” looking at a government that was seeking vote by vote once again, with the calculator in hand.
Doubts about ‘no’ and abstention
The popular ones, as this newspaper already published, have been moving for days between abstention and no. Although weeks ago, when the Council of Ministers approved the text, the balance was tilted towards the position of abstaining from validating it in Congress, over the past weekend the conservative leadership was inclined to value a vote against. First, due to the growing problems of the Executive after the espionage scandal, which threatens to shake the legislature.
And, furthermore, in the PP they understand that the decree “has fallen very short & rdquor; and it is “insufficient” to give way to the inflationary crisis that citizens are experiencing. That is why they believe that voting against it would not mean such great wear and tear. On the other side of the coin are the leaders who do not see a clear no to such a sensitive decree that directly affects Spanish households, especially when it comes to filling the car’s tank. “If the decree has good measures, even if they are very few, it is difficult to justify a vote against & rdquor ;, they explain. Nor do they deny that the previous popular leadership would not have expressed doubts and would already be at no. And in that context, they recognize, Feijóo could want to mark distances.