Mark Rutte of the VVD has pulled his tuxedo out of the closet again. He has already selected the matching red dress and had it delivered. And the recipients, PvdA and GroenLinks, are only too happy with it. It’s exactly what they hoped for: the right conditions for a weeks-long dance with the biggest party in full view.
The campaign season for the elections for the Provincial Council has been open for a week now. And what immediately stands out: the VVD wants to turn it into a political battle with the PvdA and GroenLinks.
That strategy was not used in the elections during the corona period – for the House of Representatives in 2021 and the municipal councils in 2022. At that time, political parties did not dare to challenge each other too emphatically. It was a time of crisis, voters may not have been waiting for that. An incorrect assumption, as it turned out later. Voters wanted the (middle) parties to emphasize the mutual differences.
Now the political gimmick that dominated election campaigns for years is back: two parties proclaim each other opponents and hope to dominate the campaign for weeks. Mark Rutte has been using it since 2006, when he was campaign manager for the VVD in the municipal elections. “A red dress comes into its own next to a black tuxedo,” he said at the time. Since then he often took his tuxedo out of the closet and the dress always ended up with someone else.
Read also this piece about the conflict between Mark Rutte and Thierry Baudet in 2019
‘Left Cloud’
This time, therefore, with the PvdA and GroenLinks, which are on the ballot paper as two parties on March 15, but have announced that they will campaign together and operate as a joint group in the Senate. In a interview of the Telegraph Last weekend, Rutte and Edith Schippers, candidate senator for the VVD, put the spotlight on the two left-wing parties – invariably referred to as the ‘left cloud’ by the VVD. The VVD had, said Rutte, “tried to get that left-wing cloud under it, but it will come back again.” Every debate in the PvdA and GroenLinks, he also said, “ends in raising taxes.”
Not exactly complimentary, but the PvdA and GroenLinks cheered. All parties like to challenge the largest party. And those who do not become the opponent run a great risk of becoming a bystander. He watches, makes an attempt to participate, but is not assured of attention.
“The political duel is a tried and tested method. Being portrayed as De Grote Opstander sends a signal to voters and journalists that you are relevant,” says Tom van der Meer, professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam. “It happened between Wim Kok (PvdA) and Frits Bolkestein (VVD), between Jan-Peter Balkenende (CDA) and Wouter Bos (PvdA), between Rutte and Diederik Samsom (PvdA). If parties from different political blocs – left, centre-right or radical right – seek each other out and emphasize the differences, it works to their advantage.”
Here’s the thing: at the moment the VVD and the PvdA/GroenLinks combination are close to each other in polls. Ideologically they are far apart. The closer to Election Day, the more politicians, media and voters are concerned with who is going to be the biggest. Voters from both the left and the right bloc can then consider choosing the party from their bloc that has the best chance of winning. Put plainly: in this example a CDA member could still vote for the VVD, a D66 member for GroenLinks or the PvdA. Van der Meer: “Parties that participate in the duel can therefore win over the voters in their electoral bloc and thus become the largest.”
The results of the provincial elections are important for political parties, because they determine the composition of the Senate. Coalition parties VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie now together do not have a majority there (32 of the 75 seats) and fear that their share will decrease after the elections. In the polls, three of these four parties lose seats, only the ChristenUnie has a slight gain.
Much to gain
There is much to gain in the Senate. Four years ago, the Forum for Democracy there was as big as the VVD. But of the twelve seats that the party won then, only one remains after quarrels and splits.
Other parties are now preying on the voters who then voted for FvD. Out a poll from I&O Research it appeared last month that they intend to vote for the PVV, JA21 or BBB. Only then does the VVD follow. The attempted conflict with PvdA and GroenLinks can be explained in this way: the VVD presents itself as the party that prevents left-wing ideas from becoming the largest in the center-right bloc of which it is itself a part, but also hopes to be the only alternative for even more right-wing to be voters.
The theme that the VVD wants to make big, the tax burden, is also no coincidence. There is a lingering uncertainty among the Dutch: voters are concerned about their financial situation. This is evident from both voter surveys that the parties have carried out themselves and reports from the Social and Cultural Planning Office. This regularly investigates how the Dutch think the country is doing and what they are concerned about. From the latest edition, from the end of last year, it appears that expectations about their own financial situation have become more negative. Concerns about income and the economy are the most frequently mentioned social problems.
Voters have for years associated the economy mainly with the VVD, it appears National Voter Survey, which Van der Meer leads. If that becomes most important in elections, voters tend to vote for the party that has the strongest profile for it. It is difficult for other parties to adopt such a theme. For example, the CDA tried that in 2021 with the economy – and lost.
Also read about the campaign in 2021: Hoekstra hopes for a duel with Rutte
Just as important as the campaign theme is how it is debated and reported. Something to watch out for, says Van der Meer. “It is convenient for the VVD if the debate on economics is mainly about taxes, and its warning that left-wing parties would increase them. While left-wing parties benefit more from focusing on redistribution, solidarity and the strongest shoulders who have to bear the heaviest burden.” A second battle, therefore, within the duel.