Once the first fifty days have elapsed since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine and while Russia completes preparations for a new offensive on Donbas, the loss of the cruiser ‘Moskva’ it is a serious setback for Moscow. At this point it is almost anecdotal if what happened is the result of a fire in the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet, as the Kremlin maintains, or the impact of two anti-ship missiles launched from the Ukrainian coast, as announced by kyiv.
In the first case, it would be another sign of the inefficient performance of the Russian military machine, precisely in the only area in which Russian dominance was incontestable, both in the Sea of Azov and in the Black Sea. Ukraine does not have anything that could be classified as a war fleet and, therefore, it was understood that Russia could move freely through those waters, both to block the commercial exit of Ukrainian grain and coal to other countries, and to support the land operations that its troops carry out on the southeastern front, with Mariúpol as the most relevant reference. With this in mind, the Moskva – with its 12,500-tonne displacement, its 16 Vulkan supersonic anti-ship missiles and its S-300 anti-aircraft batteries – represented a formidable threat for the Ukrainian coastal cities and for any aerial vehicle that wanted to cross the area.
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But neither would it be implausible that they were the ukrainian forces those who have managed to sink the cruiser. According to kyiv, taking advantage of the unleashing of a storm, the attack combined a diversionary maneuver with two Turkish-made TB2 Bayraktar drones, with the launch of two Ukrainian-made Neptune RK-360MT anti-ship cruise missiles from the coast. Despite its inferiority in this field Last March, those same forces managed to sink the Orsk Project 1171 multipurpose ship. in the port of Berdyansk, precisely with a short-range Russian missile OTR-21 Tochka. If the Ukrainian authorship is finally confirmed, it would be a serious blow that not only strengthens the morale of some troops who will soon face a decisive battle for control of Donbasbut allows them to continue competing for the use of the air spacevital to hinder the development of the ground operations that the Russian troops are going to unleash in their desperate attempt to achieve an objective that, as Mariúpol shows, continues to resist them.
In any case -including other recent positive signs for kyiv, such as the capture of the pro-Russian oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk (who can now be exchanged for an undetermined number of prisoners held by Moscow)-, the US announcement of a new shipment of military material which includes Russian Mi-17 helicopters, or the special operation carried out by members of the 36th Marine Brigade and the controversial Azov regiment in the besieged city of Mariupol-, Ukraine remains in inferiority. An inferiority that can only be modified if finally the Occidental countries who align themselves with kyiv end up understanding that what is being decided these days is much more than the existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state and that it very directly affects the safety of all European countries. kyiv’s rudeness to the German president is a clear sign that not everyone understands it that way yet.