How much room is there for diplomacy? Judging by the level of violence on Wednesday, the seventh day of the invasion, one would say: very little. Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities only intensified. At the same time, there was not a single flaw in Ukrainian determination. As long as both sides can still believe in victory, they could ignore the negotiating table.
The Russian Ministry of Defence claimed Wednesday saw the first serious victory: the capture of the southern port city of Kherson (285,000 inhabitants). US intelligence sources later contradicted that the city had been completely captured. Southern Mariupol was almost completely enclosed on Wednesday. In Kharkov, the country’s second-largest city, many residents once again spent the day in their cellars for fear of Russian air raids. According to local authorities, at least 25 people have been killed in 24 hours.
Poor results
After a week of war, both sides have every reason for concern. Ukraine says it has already killed 5,300 Russian soldiers, a number that cannot be verified remotely. Russia holds on to five hundred dead, neither can it be controlled. But even if it concerns fifteen hundred victims in the first five days, the rough estimate used by the Pentagon, that is certainly a high number in relation to the meager results. the fast regime change what Russia hoped for – Ukrainian intelligence sources suspect that Putin has the Moscow-promoting Ukrainian former president Viktor Yanukovych in mind – has turned out to be an illusion.
Ukraine is losing civilian casualties, more than two thousand according to its own estimate. And it will fear a siege of the capital Kiev, now a Russian one there for days column of hundreds of military vehicles including tanks, estimated to be 15,000 men, is on its way. The convoy hardly moves, if at all, which raises questions about the plans for many. An encirclement of the capital of 2.8 million inhabitants? But why wait?
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov increased the pressure not only on Ukraine, but also on the rest of the world when he said that a Third World War would be accompanied by the use of nuclear weapons.
On Wednesday there were signs that the parties would meet again for negotiations, a follow-up to an initial meeting on Monday. Then two delegations had talked for hours at the border with Belarus. They parted ways to no avail, but with an agreement to discuss further quickly. On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy said in an interview with Reuters and CNN that talk will only be possible if Russia “at least stops bombing civilians.”
He gave some information about a possible concession. If Russian opposition makes Ukraine’s accession to NATO impossible, NATO countries must “work out security guarantees for Ukraine,” Zelensky said. He demands territorial integrity, border protection, “special relations with all our neighbours” and “security guaranteed by law”.
In the course of Wednesday it became clear that Russia wants to resume the conversation. A delegation led by negotiator Vladimir Medinksy traveled to Brest, Belarus, on the border with Poland, but was alone there on Wednesday evening. The Russian army would build a safe corridor through which the Ukrainian delegation could also come to the border. Zelensky’s spokesmen stated that that delegation did indeed leave on Wednesday. According to Medinsky, a ceasefire is one of the topics of discussion.