With renewed fighting spirit, Russia has opened the attack on the Ukrainian frontline city of Avdiivka. The Russian armed forces are trying to advance on the north, south and east side of the besieged city in the Donbas, deploying a significant amount of manpower and equipment, heavy artillery shelling and massive air raids with drones and planes. “A new decisive battle in the war has begun,” writes the Ukrainian military journalist Yuri Butusov.
It appears to be one of the largest attacks on the city to date, Ukrainian Major Maksim Morozev, who is stationed in the area, told Radio Svoboda. The Russian troops are probably trying to encircle the city.
Analysts from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say the attack is likely an attempt to divert Ukrainian manpower from the counter-offensive. They don’t see an encirclement happening anytime soon: “[Dat] would most likely require more troops than Russia currently has deployed.”
Heavily military fortified
Avdiivka is one of the most militarily fortified cities along the front in the Donbas region. The city borders the demarcation line of the 2014 and 2015 fought (and Russian militarily supported) separatist ‘people’s republic’ of Donetsk. The city is so well defended that since the start of the massive attack on Ukraine last year, Russian forces have only managed to make some territorial gains on the flanks of Avdiivka.
“Avdiivka is of strategic importance for the Russian Federation, as this city is in fact the gateway to Donetsk,” writes military analyst Butusov. He calls the regional capital Donetsk the most important communications hub in the occupied territories. “To gain a foothold in the conquered Donbas, Putin must move the front line away from Donetsk.” The city is now only ten kilometers from the front.
There are hardly any civilians living in the besieged city. Before the war, Avdiivka had more than 30,000 inhabitants. After the invasion, the population fled. By summer there were another 2,500 residents left. Last week, eleven more people left the city.
No civilian casualties
Ukraine would prefer to see all civilians leave their homes as long as the fighting continues. “Every day we are trying to convince people to evacuate,” Vitaly Barabasj, head of the city government, told Radio Svoboda. Yet, according to Barabash, there were no civilian casualties during the massive attack in recent days. “People just didn’t go outside.”
Russian war propaganda channels claim territorial gains of up to two kilometers at Avdiivka. Ukraine denies this. The Russian claims have not been independently confirmed and are not supported by footage.
Although Ukraine has announced that it will spend more than a fifth of its national budget on defense next year, the country remains highly dependent on foreign support for its war efforts. It is feared that this support will come under pressure now that the new war around Gaza is consuming international attention. The United States, Ukraine’s largest donor, recently paused the promise of a multibillion-dollar aid package because there was insufficient support for it in Congress.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to Brussels on Wednesday morning for a meeting with the defense ministers of NATO member states. Here the US announced that despite the national budget issue, it could still provide a $200 million aid package to Ukraine. This package includes anti-aircraft missiles and precision weapons. Belgium announced that it also wants F-16 fighter planes to Ukraine from 2025 transfer. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander de Croo also announced a support fund worth 1.7 billion euros. The money comes from tax revenues from Russian assets frozen due to the sanctions and will be used for military equipment, humanitarian aid and macroeconomic aid.
Zelensky announced in advance the three topics he wanted to discuss: strengthening Ukrainian air defenses, especially in the south around the ports of Odesa and the Danube ports of Izmajil and Reni. Second, the supply of long-range missiles and long-range weapons – which its allies have consistently shown reluctance to provide. Finally: artillery. “This is not about the counter-offensive, that goes in one direction, but you also have to defend yourself,” Zelensky told reporters. Ukrainian media.