Luhansk, the last major Ukrainian city, has fallen. A milestone for Russia, which after 125 days of war is creeping closer to the goal of conquering the so-called Donets Basin. Military experts suspect that in that case an attack pause will follow. During that period, an all-important decision will be made about the continuation or end of the war, they explain in conversation with NU.nl.
The conquest of Severodonetsk was a long one, confirm military experts Rob de Wijk (Leiden University) and Han Bouwmeester (Netherlands Defense Academy). It shows similarities with the capture of Mariupol: a destroyed city that was defended until the last moment by Ukrainians who holed up in a factory.
The big difference: the factory in Mariupol had an underground tunnel network in which the soldiers could withstand the artillery fire for months relatively unscathed. The soldiers in Severodonetsk were forced this weekend to withdraw after several weeks after the Russians razed every shelter to the ground.
“Russia eventually gets possession of the entire Donets basin”
Both military experts believe it is likely that Russia will take control of the entire Donets Basin. They simply point to Russia’s military superiority. For every shell Ukraine can fire, the Russians can easily return ten.
“It will be a war of attrition, over a long period of time with many victims. Russia will flatten everything until there is nothing left to defend,” says Bouwmeester.
Although Ukraine is struggling with a shortage of weapons and ammunition, the Russian army also has problems. For example, within the Kremlin there is great dissatisfaction with the progress of the invasion; that is why the Russian army top this month was once again overhauled.
Peace negotiations must become a welcome respite
A breather in the form of peace negotiations is therefore good for both parties and seems likely, according to Bouwmeester and De Wijk. Kyiv previously hinted at new talks in late August. “Ukraine can then catch its breath and get new weapons. Russia can lick the wounds and regroup,” explains De Wijk.
Bouwmeester sees the break as a moment of “contemplation”. According to him, it is the moment in which the possible continuation or end of the war is determined.
He points to the territory that Putin will have in his hands by then. “It concerns 70 percent of Novorossiya (New Russia, a former colony of Russia, ed.). It is a nice story for Putin to his own population, a moment when he can say: ‘Look what I have done. got'”.
Bouwmeester has ruled out a major offensive by Russia after the peace talks to regain control of large parts of northern and western Ukraine. According to him, a stalemate is more likely, partly due to western arms deliveries. “Conquering cities like Kharkiv and Odesa does not seem feasible. The Kremlin also realizes that the battle in the Donets basin is very difficult.”
Putin would still have to take this area to realize Novorossiya.
Putin would still have to take this area to realize Novorossiya.
Big question marks: unpredictable Putin and concessions from Zelensky
De Wijk expects that after the ‘attack pause’, Russia will continue to destroy Ukraine. “In the end, Kyiv gives up. The arms deliveries are too small and too late.”
“In addition, Ukraine currently works with very old Soviet systems,” continues the professor. “They will all have to be replaced soon, because the relevant ammunition is no longer made. But replacing all systems is not possible at all. The deliveries are too small and the promised weapons are not even there yet.”
Finally, De Wijk expects that Zelensky will not want to give up enough ground during the negotiations to end the war. Bouwmeester does not rule that out. He points to an interview by news hour with Zelensky. “In that conversation, he said that he wanted to go back to the situation before the invasion. He is taking into account the scenario in which the Crimea and the Donets basin remain in Russian hands. The question now is: will he make concessions and how much Russia wants Putin there? have with?”