Should Russia fully mobilize to win the war against Ukraine? While Russian media speculate about the imposition of martial law, Russian authorities have already started preparations to call up reservists.
On Friday, oligarch and opposition leader Mikhail Khodorkovsky posted an official document from the Moscow Municipality on its Telegram channel. It is an order to the ‘mobilization department’ of an unnamed hospital (parts of the document have been blacked out) to begin monitoring medical personnel on call to the armed forces. The document is dated January 24.
More than a week after the start of the invasion, the Russian advance is slow and the Russian troops suffer enormous losses. The Russian defense ministry on Wednesday reported 498 dead and 1,597 wounded on its own side, but Kiev reported Monday that “losses” (dead and wounded) had risen to more than 9,000 Russian soldiers. The truth will lie somewhere in the middle.
After eight days of fighting, Kherson, in the south of Ukraine, is the only major city that has been captured. Mariupol on the Sea of Azov is besieged from all sides, but still holds out. In the northeast, Kharkov is still not enclosed, despite heavy shelling.
Also read: No one knows what’s coming, whether Kiev will soon look like Aleppo
After an offensive from the northwest stalled, Russian units attempt to encircle Kiev from the western side, but little progress had been made there by Friday. Russian troops on the western side of the Dnieper River have not yet reached the capital.
Fanned units
According to the Pentagon, Russia has now deployed about 90 percent of its invasion force of some 190,000 soldiers. That seems like a lot, but Ukraine is a huge country and the Russian attack is on several axes.
For example, units from Crimea are now fanning out in three directions: towards Mariupol in the east, towards Mykolaiv and Odessa in the west, and in a northerly direction, threatening Zaporizhia and Dnipro.
This spreads the Russian troops and makes supplies difficult. Moreover, isolated units are vulnerable to partisan tactics by Ukrainian defenders, who – equipped with Western anti-tank missiles – are sowing hell and damnation among Russian trucks, armored cars and tanks. In addition, the Ukrainians seem to continue their tactic of attacking mainly logistics convoys.
Partly because of this, many Russian units run out of fuel and rations, which further slows down the advance. The huge convoy that has been stationary north of Kiev for days still did not move on Friday.
The shortage of Russian manpower is illustrated by a report from the Ukrainian staff on Thursday that Russia would launch a new offensive from the east north of Luhansk in an attempt to break through to central Ukraine and push the Ukrainian army into the to surround Donbas. A logical plan on paper, but the two Russian battlegroups that have been spotted will not be able to do much.
Humanitarian emergency
The battle for Mariupol – crucial for Russia to establish a link between Crimea and the Donbas – shows how much effort it takes for the Russians to achieve victory. After days of shelling, the city still didn’t give up on Friday, though Russians have largely destroyed water, electricity and internet facilities and blocked access roads, creating a humanitarian emergency.
After the capture of Kherson, the battle for the coastal city of Mykolaiv intensified on Friday. According to the mayor, Russian soldiers surrounded the city with 800 vehicles. Yet they have not yet moved beyond the suburbs.
Also read: Occupied Kherson fears the Russian soldiers
No wonder there are more and more reports of the arrival of reinforcements. Equipment from the Russian military districts ‘south’ and ‘east’ is being towed towards Belarus to reinforce the attack on Kiev. This week there were reports of an imminent participation of Belarusian troops. Although columns of Belarusian equipment have been spotted on the Ukrainian border, participation in the fighting has not been confirmed.
Improvisation
“We’re mainly looking at a lot of improv, which varies from city to city,” British War Studies professor emeritus Lawrence Freedman told the newspaper. Financial Times† “There are clearly horrific attacks on civilian targets, but there is no carpet bombing or scorched earth tactics.”
That could of course change, as the Russian army has already changed tactics before, when it turned out that Ukraine was not easily taken by surprise. NATO boss Jens Stoltenberg warned on Friday of more intense fighting. “The coming days are likely to get worse,” he said, “with more deaths, more suffering and more destruction as Russian forces bring in heavier weapons.”
A version of this article also appeared in NRC Handelsblad on 5 March 2022
A version of this article also appeared in NRC in the morning of March 5, 2022