Russia has bigger ambitions than eastern Ukraine. How’s the advance going?

A Russian general says the capture of the Donbas is “Moscow’s main goal”. How plausible is that?

That’s unlikely. The Russian army’s heavy attacks on numerous Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, prove that Russia has greater ambitions than conquering eastern Ukraine. President Putin’s order to ‘denazify’ and ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine suggests that too – and Putin has not backed down on that. Sergei Rudskoy, the deputy chief of staff of the Russian army, tried in a briefing to convince the Russian population that “the special military operation” is going according to plan. He presented failed attacks on cities as successful attempts to exhaust the Ukrainian army so that Russia could move on to ‘the main goal’: the conquest of ‘the territory’ of the Russian-recognized Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics.

How much territory has Russia made in eastern Ukraine?

Large parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces were already occupied by separatists led by Moscow at the start of the invasion. Since February 24, Russia has made significant gains in territory in Luhansk, Ukraine’s far northeast province. Russia claims to control 96 percent of the province. But the ground gained mainly consists of rural areas. Russia failed to capture Severodonetsk, the province’s largest city with over 100 thousand inhabitants. Attacks on the strategically located towns of Zolote and Popasna have also been repulsed, the Ukrainian army says.

In the Donetsk province, Russia has taken territory in the south. More than half of the province is now under Russian control, according to Moscow. The offensive is aimed at Mariupol, where Russian troops have reached the blackened center. Russia is making “slow but steady” progress, according to The Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The think tank expects Mariupol to fall ‘in the near future’.

Can Russia take the rest of the Donbas after Mariupol?

According to the ISW, that depends on the losses suffered by the Russian army in occupying Mariupol. If the losses are large, there is little chance that Russia will be able to resume large-scale fighting in the east in the short term. “It is too early to say, but current indicators indicate that Russian losses were and will continue to be significant,” the ISW said. The think tank considers a rapid Russian advance in the east ‘unlikely’.

How does the Ukrainian army defend itself?

Until last month, the strongest part of the Ukrainian army was based in the east of the country. After all, there had been eight years of war. The Ukrainian army has dug in in protected places, behind hills and rivers. In Donetsk province, Ukrainian military personnel still control most of those positions. Whether they can keep it depends on their resupply. The Ukrainian arms industry has been badly damaged by Russian bombings. Western weapons brought in from Poland have to travel more than a thousand kilometers to reach eastern Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government accuses Russia of using phosphorus munitions in the Donbas. What is known about this?

Ukraine says Russia has used white phosphorus in attacks in Kramatorsk, Avdiivka (Donetsk province) and Popasna (Luhansk province) towns. The self-igniting white phosphorus can cause fatal burns and is therefore controversial.

Ukrainian soldiers have shared photos of bombings that resemble bombings with phosphorus munitions. But there is no independent confirmation of the use of phosphorus by Russia. Putin’s spokesman recently responded to the allegations by saying that Russia “has never violated international conventions.”

Phosphorus is not on the Chemical Weapons Prohibition List of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and is not prohibited under all circumstances. Several countries have used phosphorus ammunition to erect smoke screens. Human rights organizations are demanding stricter international rules for the use of phosphorus because of the high risk of fatal burns. Human Rights Watch documented serious injuries from white phosphorus in Syria, Afghanistan and Gaza, among others.