Hans van Koningsbrugge, professor of Russian History and Politics at the University of Groningen, gives his commentary on the war in Ukraine every Saturday. Today episode 128.
“The residents of Kharkiv are in trouble. Ukraine’s second city has been a frequent target of rocket attacks lately. What particularly frightens them is a Russian army of 40,000 troops and 500 tanks, which is said to have gathered behind the border northeast of Kupyansk.
This much is clear: things are not going well for Ukraine militarily. Otherwise Zelensky would not have replaced half the army’s top brass. Not only Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny had to make way for Oleksandr Syrsky, sixteen generals also had to leave.
‘Fall of Avdiivka is a moral blow’
This change of power in the army leadership could not prevent Ukraine from having to give up Avdiivka. That’s a moral blow. After 2014, there was fighting over that city, which is close to Donetsk, for years. Both sides suffered huge losses there. In addition, Ukraine is missing a thousand troops.
There are no indications that the former commander-in-chief has kicked the bucket. In front of the world, Zaluzhny and Zelensky said a proper farewell. There must of course have been disappointment in the army about the change of power, because Zaluzhny was very popular among his men. I also don’t think you can blame Syrsky for the loss. For weeks, Avdiivka had been on the verge of falling.
‘It is an endless wait for American support’
Furthermore, I doubt whether the story about the impending Russian offensive near Kharkiv is correct. I imagine the Russian army needs a breather. An attack with 40,000 men is quite something. The size of the Russian army is also not infinitely large. Moreover, it is one of the most fortified parts of the Ukrainian front.
It is undeniable that Ukraine has been pushed back on its defense. What bothers the army most is the West’s procrastination. The EU has pledged to deliver one million artillery shells to Ukraine by March 1. That won’t work for a long time. There is also an endless wait for the American Congress to give the green light for a support package of $60 billion. This will be voted on on February 28. Perhaps Navalny’s death will convince some Republicans.”