Hans van Koningsbrugge, professor of Russian History and Politics at the University of Groningen, gives his commentary on the war in Ukraine every Saturday. Today episode 106.
“Hundreds were killed and many more injured in Nagorno-Karabakh last week. Things have been restless in this Armenian enclave in Azerbaijan for some time now. It is far away, but both Christian Armenia and predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan see themselves as European. Both are former Soviet states where Moscow had a major influence.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nagorno-Karabakh declared itself an independent republic in 1992. That is not recognized internationally. The area is inhabited by Armenians. It is connected to Armenia via a corridor. Independence is disputed by Azerbaijan. It led to many armed conflicts.
‘Stalin had little sympathy for nationalist sentiments’
In 2020 there was even a war, which was won by Azerbaijan. After mediation by Moscow, a ceasefire was reached. Since then, the front line to Armenia has been guarded by a Russian peacekeeping force. Last week, the Azerbaijani army invaded Nagorno-Karabakh again. After mediation by Russia, Karabakh authorities and Azerbaijan agreed on Wednesday a truce agree.
On the map you can see that Nagorno-Karabakh looks very irregular. This was encouraged by the Soviet dictator Stalin. He pursued a divide-and-rule policy in the Caucasus. Stalin, who himself came from nearby Georgia, had little sympathy for nationalist sentiments. Not even for those of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.
‘Armenians feel surrounded on all sides’
There are still ethnic tensions. These are not only caused by differences in religion. There is a lot of Armenian cultural heritage in Nagorno-Karabakh. There are dozens of Armenian monasteries and schools. What also plays a role is the existence of Nakhchivan, an exclave of Azerbaijan in Armenia. Furthermore, it is difficult for Armenia, which still remembers the Armenian genocide of a hundred years ago, to digest the fact that Azerbaijan is friends with Turkey. The Armenians feel surrounded on all sides. Therefore, for a long time they sought protection from Moscow. They enjoyed that too, but that’s over now. Russia has to fend for itself.
Moscow’s role determines the course of this conflict. The Kremlin now has something else on its mind with the war in Ukraine. If the Russians look away, Azerbaijan will show its teeth in Nagorno-Karabakh.”