Russia does not challenge Turkey (yet) after blocking warships in the Black Sea

One of three Russian ships will sail through the Dardanelles on February 9, 2022 to cross the Bosphorus on its way to participate in military exercises in the Black Sea.Image AP

The Turkish request and decision to comply with it date from shortly before Monday, when Turkey decided to close the strait between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea to Russian warships, Çavusoglu said.

The blockade of access to the Black Sea by NATO member Turkey creates a potentially explosive situation. Moscow can still challenge Ankara by sending a ship into the Bosphorus. It would mark the first physical military confrontation between Russia and a NATO member state. A clash of Russia with Turkey is a clash of the whole alliance.

The Turkish government had established before the blockade that there is formal war in Ukraine, so that it would have to work on Article 19 of the Montreux Treaty. This stipulates that the sea connection may not be used by belligerent countries in the event of war. The 1936 treaty gives Turkey major say over the management of the strait, which runs right through Istanbul.

Home port

Three of the four Russian ships — a frigate, two destroyers and a scout — do not have the Russian naval base at Sevastopol in Crimea as their home port. The Treaty of Montreux stipulates that warships can return to their home port in times of war.

The United States has expressed its ‘appreciation’ for the Turkish move. Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey said he was grateful that Ankara was “mindfully” complying with the Montreux Treaty.

Turkey joins the NATO chorus that strongly condemns the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet it tries not to alienate Russia too much. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already twice offered himself as a mediator between Moscow and Kyiv. Minister Çavusoglu reiterated on Tuesday that Turkey will not participate in Western sanctions against Russia.

Turkey has already incurred Moscow’s displeasure before the Russian invasion by supplying drones to the Ukrainian government. He said on Sunday that the Turkish drones are “very effective” in the fight against the Russian army. Defense Minister Oleksii Renikov has said a new shipment of Turkish drones is about to be delivered.

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