In the midst of an acute global food crisis, aggravated by already undeniable climate change, Russia has decided not only to distance itself from the Initiative on Cereal Exports through the Black Sea, agreed on July 22 of last year, but threaten to sink any ship entering or leaving Ukrainian ports for interpreting that it transports military material. Moscow maintains that its decision responds to the refusal to accept your requests –reconnection of the agricultural bank Rosseljozbank to the Swift banking system, lifting of sanctions on spare parts for agricultural machinery, unblocking of logistics and transport insurance, unfreezing of assets and reactivation of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline (burst on June 5)–, but reality is different.
It would be wrong to think that Moscow directly intends to starve those who will suffer the most from the foreseeable cut in grain supply; indeed, Russia has immediately reiterated that is willing to offer its own cereals to countries that may need themand even to donate them in some cases. What Putin seeks, first of all, is to sink the Ukrainian economy. It should be remembered that in the last 11 months no less than 32 million tons from its ports to 45 countries (half of them corn and 65% of wheat destined for developing countries), transported by around 1,100 ships. An activity that has provided kyiv with some vital currency to sustain its war effort and its exemplary citizen resistance. This also explains the systematic shelling of the port infrastructures of Odesa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk.
In addition, Russia seeks to put pressure on those who have decided to impose sanctions on it (which do not apply to its cereals or its fertilizers), creating an unsustainable situation in the countries that depend on said cereals in the hope of alleviating the punishment it is suffering and having a bargaining chip to achieve the lifting of sanctions in other areas. Along the way, it also has improve its image in the countries of the so-called Global Southpresenting himself as a victim of western powers and as an alternative supplier without the geopolitical mortgages that the West imposes on them.
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As for the consequences, for now, they can only be considered as potential derivatives of what happens from now on. Are governments in need of these grains and shipping companies willing to defy Moscow, sending their ships to Ukrainian ports under the threat of attack? Is Moscow determined to carry out its threat? Will Turkey dare to jeopardize its ties with Russia by using its war fleet, as its president has stated, to protect those who dare to cross the Black Sea to and from Ukraine? What will the UN, supporter of the now invalidated agreement, do if Moscow manages to carry out such an attack? whatHow far can the countries that vitally need these cereals endure? the foreseeable price increase? How will Ukraine react to try to keep that line of exports open, when, at the same time, The FAO estimates that this year its cereal harvest will be 30% less than its historical average?
By the way, in Spain expects a 45% lower cereal harvest than last year (the worst in the last three decades) and Ukraine is our first supplier of corn and sunflower oil.