After an unprecedentedly successful week at the front in the northeast, the Ukrainian army has regained control of the city of Kupyansk. So it is likely that nearby Izhum and Balaklia will soon follow. According to the independent Institute of the Study of War, the counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region has already yielded 2,500 square kilometers of reclaimed land.
The territorial gains in the northeast are going faster than many people dared to dream: four days ago the front line was still sixty kilometers from Kupyansk. With the recapture of the city, the army stands on the banks of the Oskil, one of the main rivers in the northeast of the country.
The liberation of Kupyansk was confirmed on Saturday morning by an adviser to the regional governor. Photos of soldiers with Ukrainian flags in Kupyansk had previously appeared on social media.
Chances are the Kremlin was surprised by the offensive, the British Ministry of Defense writes in its daily intelligence update. Relatively few Russian troops are said to be present in the area. According to former army commander Mart de Kruif, many soldiers have probably been moved to the front in the south of the country, where Ukraine has placed another counter-offensive at Kherson. “Russia’s response to the threat there has created the precondition for Ukraine to act at the Kharkiv front.”
Initiative at Ukraine
De Kruif states that the Ukrainians and the Russians are currently waging war with a comparable arsenal and number of soldiers. This makes two things even more important: the motivation of the army and the quality of the leadership, both on the ground and in the translation of political wishes into military strategy.
Ukraine is currently trumping its rival on both fronts, says the retired professional soldier. As a result, the initiative in the war is currently with the Ukrainians, and the Russians are forced to react.
That is not to say that the Ukrainian attack in the south was a diversionary maneuver to strike in the north, says De Kruif. ‘There is also hard fighting at Kherson. I think the Ukrainian goal for the winter is to recapture the area west of the Dnipro River, so that the threat to Odesa is gone.” However, the advance in the northeast of the country is of strategic importance: many Russian supply lines run through the area.
Although the Kremlin denies the loss of ground, even the pro-Russian chief politician of the Kharkiv region spoke of a “very sharp and rapid” progression of the Ukrainian army. Moscow said Friday it would send military reinforcements to the northeastern front. The Ukrainian army says on Saturday that 1,300 Chechen fighters have joined the Russians.
Winter
Although the gains in territory lead to great optimism on the Ukrainian side, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is wary of unrealistic expectations. “There are still many Russian troops in Ukraine. President Putin has shown that he is willing to sacrifice people at a high Russian price, however tragic and terrible that is unfortunately.’
In addition, the approaching winter will put a stop to the Ukrainian momentum, De Kruif fears. In the coming weeks, he says, the initiative will remain with Ukraine, but that will not be enough to liberate an area such as De Krim, for example. ‘Then winter will come and there will be no fighting. Putin then has the chance to set up a war economy in his country, while it remains to be seen whether the West will continue to support Ukraine in this way.’
