A joint space station on the moon, ever-increasing military exercises by Chinese and Russian armies, and Moscow and Beijing are literally using the same anti-Western rhetoric. It seems that the two authoritarian superpowers are only one step away from a true military alliance. That would be a change of historic proportions.
Beijing has only one ally, North Korea, and China is not involved in alliances. Instead of pinning itself on obligations to military allies, Beijing works with partnerships, which are if necessary rigged into near-alliances. Russia, which leads its own alliance of former Soviet states, certainly does not need China in the military field.
Yet, especially from Russia, there is hint of an alliance. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been flirting with it for some time, Beijing is responding more and more enthusiastically. China’s ambassador to Moscow, Zhang Hanhui, recently assured Russia of “backing up” against US efforts to restrict Russia’s and China’s leeway. China has never been so explicit.
Authoritarian Monster Covenant
For the West, a new monstrous authoritarian alliance is a nightmare. Such a power bloc can exhaust the Americans in a battle on two fronts. Russia then puts pressure in the west, on the borders with Europe. If the US has their hands full there, China could open a second front in the east with an invasion of Taiwan, or skirmishes with Japan. It is impossible for the US to fight conflicts with two superpowers at the same time.
For a long time I thought Putin was bluffing with a Chinese alliance, now it seems serious. The current tension around Ukraine is a harbinger of such a two-front scenario,” said Artyom Lukin. This specialist in Russian-China relations from the Federal University of Vladivostok has even exchanged the US dollars in his savings account for Chinese renminbi, because he expects the alliance to be a fact within a few years.
China, which did not warm to an alliance with Russia until 2018 for fear of chasing the Americans, has since abandoned hopes that the rivalry with the US is temporary. After Trump’s trade war, Biden forged an anti-Chinese defense pact in Asia. Under mounting US pressure, Beijing is playing Putin’s game, in the hopes that Biden will back off due to the threat of a Russian-Chinese alliance. Not a month goes by without announcing new cooperation between Russia and China, be it building a space station or a shared vision of Afghanistan.
Moscow and Beijing converge in authoritarian norms
They are completely on the same page politically, says Natasha Kuhrt, a specialist in the Far East at Kings College in London. “How they crush popular protests, how they control the internet: Moscow and Beijing converge in authoritarian norms.”
Another similarity is the desire of both countries to be treated with respect by Washington as an equal superpower, rather than as a rival to be kept small. A Russian-Chinese alliance against the American democratic alliances in Europe and Asia therefore seems logical, especially when viewed through the prism of a New Cold War. The question is whether it really will.
Kuhrt sees more drawbacks than benefits. “China does not want to be sucked into Putin’s military adventures, such as the intervention in Kazakhstan or a Crimean war. Russia has little interest in helping China in territorial conflicts with friendly countries such as India or Vietnam,” said Kuhrt.
Three previous alliances have failed
In addition to the reluctance to get involved in each other’s conflicts, the legacy of three previous, disastrous Sino-Russian alliances plays a role. Those alliances ended in quarrels, threats of war and sporadic bloodshed. Before the Chinese revolution in 1949, Russia twice abused an alliance for territorial expansion in northeast China.
The third alliance was based on socialist solidarity. Moscow tried in the 1950s to model China on the Soviet example with the help of loans and advisers. This did not please China’s revolutionary leader Mao Zedong: he wanted Russian development aid and technology for an atomic bomb, but he made his own ideological plan. “When I say we should learn from the Soviet Union, I don’t mean we should learn to piss and shit from them,” Mao Zedong is said to have grumbled at his personal physician. In 1960, Moscow withdrew its advisers when the annoyances erupted into ideological discord. Henceforth the socialist giants were at war with each other.
Moscow does not want to become dependent, Beijing is cautious
It was only in the 1980s that Moscow and Beijing gradually learned to manage their resentment and mistrust: but they never became friends. With the economic roles reversed, Russia fears becoming dependent on China. ‘We want infrastructure and energy projects, but not on Chinese terms. Chinese want full control, so do Russians. As a result, collaboration often does not get off the ground’, says Loekin. However, Russia will remain a supplier of raw materials until Moscow accepts its economic subordination to China. It will be some time before Russian pride is set aside.
Beijing also remains cautious. Suppose such an alliance fails again, then all the work to improve relations with the northern neighbor has been in vain. For now, China will benefit more from the threat posed by the suggestion that Russia and China are about to join forces than from an actual alliance. Kuhrt: ‘China hopes that the idea alone will stop Washington from increasing the pressure on China. If that alliance is a fact, then Russia and China will be stuck together and all chances for normal relations with the US will have been lost.’