(new: more details and background)
WASHINGTON/TEHRAN (dpa-AFX) – The agreement on a framework agreement to end the Iran war was met with relief, but also with considerable skepticism. Federal Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul sees the preliminary agreement as good news – but there will only be certainty about its substance on Friday, said the CDU politician. UN Secretary-General António Guterres praised the agreement as a “decisive step” towards a peaceful, lasting solution to the conflict. The document is scheduled to be signed in Geneva on Friday.
After weeks of negotiations, the USA and Iran agreed on the agreement, the content of which is not yet known. Many voices viewed the deal as an interim step in a diplomatic process that still has many hurdles – especially given the deep mistrust on both sides. Developments in Lebanon are seen as a stumbling block.
Israel wants to stay in Lebanon
According to Defense Minister Israel Katz, the Israeli army will not withdraw from the occupied areas in southern Lebanon for the time being. He agreed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the Israeli army would remain in the “security zones” in Lebanon, Syria and the Gaza Strip without any time limit in order to protect the border and Israeli communities from there.
The chances of success of further negotiations are sometimes viewed very skeptically. Questions such as the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program, support for Iranian allies in the region or how to deal with Iran’s missile and drone arsenal are unresolved, wrote Richard Fontaine from the think tank Center for a New American Security on Platform X. The points left out are exactly the ones that led to war in the first place.
And US President Donald Trump also does not see an imminent peace agreement as guaranteed. If further talks fail, he will resume military strikes or make the USA the “guardian of the Middle East” and as such collect 20 percent of the region’s revenue in the future, the New York Times quoted him from a telephone conversation with him on the evening of his 80th birthday on Sunday (local time).
Expert: “Benefit for the German economy”
Not least from the perspective of consumers and companies, an at least temporary end to the war would be beneficial. Experts assume that if the Strait of Hormuz opens, gasoline and gas prices will fall. Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank, said lower energy costs would be “a boon for the German economy.” There was a good mood on the stock market. The DAX rose.
A key controversial issue until the end was the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is said to have given in here and promised to open the strait after the signing. In return, Trump said he ordered the US naval blockade of Iranian ports to be lifted immediately. This fulfilled one of the Iranians’ main demands while the US waits for the Strait of Hormuz to open.
There may also be a risk of a fee model for crossing the strait. Iran could charge fees after a 60-day period during which free passage is possible, according to a report by the Tasnim news agency, among others. The Iranian media reports could not initially be independently verified.
Facilitating merchant shipping
German merchant shipping reacted to the development with relief. The general manager of the Association of German Shipowners (VDR), Martin Kröger, said: “The signals from the talks between the USA and Iran also give hope to shipping.” According to VDR, 46 ships belonging to German shipping companies with around 1,000 sailors are still stuck in the Persian Gulf. According to the UN Special Maritime Organization (IMO), there have been 46 attacks on merchant ships in the region since the start of the war. 14 sailors died.
Germany, France, Britain and Italy agreed to support the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. This includes “a purely defensive, independent mission to encourage merchant shipping and carry out mine clearance,” said Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in a joint statement.
Vance or Trump could be there for the signing
The US government plans to be represented at the highest level at the signing in Switzerland. “I definitely plan to be there, but it’s also possible that the president himself will be there,” Vice President JD Vance told Fox News. It is considered unlikely that both Vance and Trump will go on a trip abroad due to the usual security precautions. Trump is traveling to Lake Geneva this week for the G7 summit in Évian, France, scheduled for Wednesday.
Harsh criticism from the CDU
CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter described the framework agreement as a “disaster”. “Donald Trump’s alleged peace deal with Iran is a security policy revelation,” Kiesewetter told the news portal “t online“. As soon as a brutal regime threatens, he gives in and sacrifices long-term security interests for a quick PR success. The “terror of the regime” would be rewarded with the deal. Kiesewetter spoke of an “unprecedented betrayal of the Iranian population”./mrd/DP/jha