(The text has been rewritten after the extrapolations.)
PARIS (dpa-AFX) – Winners actually look different: France’s head of state Emmanuel Macron suffered another severe blow on the way to his second term in office. The first hit him from the right in the presidential election a few weeks ago, when he struggled to defeat right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen in the runoff. He received the second, even more massive blow from the left in the parliamentary elections on Sunday. According to projections, the new left-wing alliance led by Jean-Luc Mlenchon narrowly passed the President’s centre-camp in the first round. According to forecasts on the distribution of seats, he now has to worry about his absolute majority in parliament, but probably not about sovereignty in the house.
Was Macron, who loves the big stage and visionary speeches, perhaps too sure of himself and – as in the presidential election – staying out of the election campaign for too long? It is true that he did not offer his unexpected opponent Mlenchon, who managed the coup within days to unite the fragmented left camp behind him, any attack surface. The shrewd left ideologue and strategist, however, used this freedom all the more to present himself as an advocate of the people and of social justice. In a situation in which many French are dissatisfied with the President’s policies, the left veteran was able to score points.
Extrapolations saw the Left Alliance in the evening with 25.6 to 26.1 percent slightly ahead of the President’s center camp with 25.2 to 25.6 percent. However, the complicated electoral system, which leads to sometimes serious differences between the percentage of votes and the distribution of seats, is the downfall of the left-wing alliance. In the end, only the votes for the winner in the respective constituency count. Polling institutes see Macron’s center alliance as better placed to intercept votes from candidates eliminated in the first round. That’s why Macron can hope in the second round next Sunday to leave the ring as the winner with a few bruises.
However, the current absolute majority of the presidential camp in the National Assembly is in danger. According to the forecasts, the Macron camp could get 255 to 310 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly. At least 289 seats are required for an absolute majority. Despite its spectacular success, only 150 to 210 seats are predicted for the Left Alliance. If Macron loses the absolute majority, he would have to regularly go to the centre-left and centre-right for votes and accept significantly more compromises.
It would then be more difficult for Macron to govern and implement his plans. Important projects cannot be postponed: improvements in education and health care are urgently needed, the population is waiting for purchasing power aids in the crisis and many want more energetic action in the climate crisis. Macron also wants to push through a controversial pension reform. All this is not a program for a weakened or outnumbered head of state, who should already be worried about further protests – but on the street and not in the polling station./rbo/DP/mis