(Update: new turnout status)
DSSELDORF (dpa-AFX) – Shortly before the polling stations closed, there were signs of a slightly lower turnout in the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. By 4 p.m. on Sunday, it was 53.35 percent on average in eight selected districts and urban districts, as state returning officer Wolfgang Schellen announced. He rated that as “moderate turnout”. In the 2017 state election, it was around 59 percent at that point.
The polling stations are open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. The first forecast of the outcome of the election is expected immediately afterwards. Around 13 million people are entitled to vote in Germany’s most populous federal state. Recent opinion polls indicated a head-to-head race between Prime Minister Hendrik Wst’s CDU and Thomas Kutschaty’s top candidate, the SPD.
Both politicians cast their votes in their home communities to a great deal of media attention. Wst came to the polling station in his home town of Rhede with his wife Katharina and, just like when he was inaugurated a few months ago, pushed their one-year-old daughter Philippa in front of him in a blue pram. Wst took over the office of prime minister in the most populous federal state from Armin Laschet at the end of October last, after he had failed in the federal elections as the Union’s candidate for chancellor.
Kuschaty and his wife Christina came to the primary school in Essen-Borbeck, where he had started school in 1974, to vote. He is counting on the SPD becoming the strongest force in North Rhine-Westphalia, said the Social Democrat.
The outcome of the state elections and possible future coalitions are considered completely open. In polls, the black-yellow coalition that has been in office for five years no longer has a majority. Until 2017, a red-green coalition was in power in NRW.
In several surveys, a tight race between the CDU and SPD has recently emerged. With around 30 to 32 percent, the CDU was just ahead of the SPD with 28 to 29 percent. In most surveys, the CDU has a lead of two to three percentage points over the SPD – a statement on the ranking of the two parties is therefore not possible due to the statistical error rate. In addition, according to polls, many voters were still undecided who they would vote for.
The Greens are in polls at 16 to 18 percent and could achieve their best state election result with their top candidate Mona Neubaur. The FDP with top candidate Joachim Stamp could only count on 7 to 8 percent, the AfD with 6 to 8 percent. With around 3 percent, the left would again miss out on entering the state parliament.
For the federal parties and the federal traffic light coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP, the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia is also considered a “small federal election” and an important mood test. Last Sunday, the CDU clearly won the election in Schleswig-Holstein with Prime Minister Daniel Gnther. Previously, the SPD with Anke Rehlinger had won the state election in Saarland.
The fact that NRW is no longer the “homeland” of the SPD is shown by the fact that the CDU and SPD have alternated in government in recent years. In 2017, the CDU and FDP formed a coalition, until 2017 a red-green alliance was at the helm.
There could be several options for the next state government in NRW. According to surveys, in addition to a rather unpopular large coalition of CDU and SPD, a black-green alliance or a Jamaican alliance of CDU, Greens and FDP would be possible. The SPD could also form a traffic light coalition with the Greens and the FDP, as in the federal government. In some polls it is not enough for a red-green majority.
Wst would like to continue governing with the FDP, but the Liberals – like the Greens – are keeping all options open. The North Rhine-Westphalia SPD leader and former state justice minister Kutschaty, who is also deputy SPD federal chairman, can imagine the formation of a traffic light coalition like in the federal government./dot/DP/he