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NUREMBERG (dpa-AFX) – Actually, the March statistics of the Federal Employment Agency would be a reason to celebrate: The spring revival also starts in times of the Corona crisis. The number of unemployed falls significantly. The number of vacancies is increasing. Measured against the concerns of previous years, dealing with the shortage of skilled workers almost seems like a luxury problem. “In practically every industry there is a plus in employment,” says BA board member Daniel Terzenbach. But instead of jubilation, Nuremberg mainly issued warnings: The war in Ukraine could also affect the German labor market if it escalates further, says Terzenbach.
“War and displacement are not currently reflected in unemployment,” he emphasized. One does not necessarily expect a large number of layoffs or bankruptcies in the future either. However, short-time work is likely to increase significantly. Because of the problems with the interrupted supply chains, companies in Germany could also temporarily falter. The presumably persistently high energy costs and the general uncertainty are doing the rest.
The BA now assumes that around 590,000 people will be on short-time work on average in 2022. According to the figures available so far, there were 654,000 in January. In December, the statisticians had assumed an annual average of 300,000 short-time workers. The deficit of 1.3 billion euros calculated at that time will not be sufficient according to the current status, says Terzenbach now. He assumes up to 4 billion.
Short-time work is a legal right. If the funds of the federal agency, which are mainly fed by income from unemployment insurance contributions, are not sufficient, the federal government has to step in. It is disputed whether this is done via a loan or a grant. The BA advocates a subsidy so that it will be easier for the authority to build up a reserve again later. Before the Corona crisis, this had grown to almost 26 billion euros, but was more than used up during the pandemic.
In March, the number of unemployed fell by 66,000 to 2.362 million compared to February. This is a decrease of 465,000 compared to March 2021. In March 2020 – when the effects of the pandemic were not yet relevant to the statistics – 2.335 million people were unemployed. The unemployment rate fell by 0.2 points to 5.1 percent in March 2022.
With 838,533 vacancies reported to the employment agencies, the supply of work is higher than it has been for a long time. The number of jobs is almost 230,000 higher than at the same time last year. The refugees from Ukraine could alleviate the problem of the need for skilled workers, but not solve them, says Terzenbach. “We have to deal with the fact that labor market integration will take a long time.”
First of all, it is about finding accommodation for the often traumatized people. According to this, childcare and the accommodation of children and young people in schools must be regulated. Only then can it be about labor market aspects. The 300,000 Ukraine refugees registered in Germany to date are mainly women, children and senior citizens. The women in particular are mostly well educated, many have a university education.
Terzenbach urges caution when it comes to the recognition of professional qualifications, since many refugees do not have any certificates with them. In nursing, for example, standards should not be washed away. Certain formal conditions would have to be met.
However, Germany learned a lot from dealing with refugees from the Middle East in the years around 2015. A hiring is no longer new territory for many companies. Terzenbach pleads for the Ukraine refugees to be quickly included in the Hartz IV basic security scheme. “If there were a decision that people would be given basic security and recorded there, it would be quick, like last time, and we could also create more transparency about it.” The federal government has decided to provide for the arrivals via the Asylum Seekers Benefits Act. The cash benefits are lower this way than with Hartz IV./dm/DP/mis