To become NATO’s boss, a candidate must overcome two hurdles. Horde one: the United States, its most powerful ally, must be enthusiastic. After the US officially announced last week that it was looking at candidate Rutte, the White House confirmed on Thursday that it supports his candidacy.
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Horde two: all other allies must agree. The lion’s share of countries support Mark Rutte. Major countries such as Germany, France and the United Kingdom also did so openly on Thursday, in what looked somewhat like a coordinated Western offensive to convince the last doubters in the alliance.
So you ran a race? Not quite. Romania announced on Thursday, according to Bloomberg news agency based on anonymous sources, that it is considering putting forward President Klaus Iohannis as a candidate. Iohannis? The Romanian was not on the lists of potential candidates that had been circulating in Brussels for months. Moreover, earlier this year in Bucharest, Iohannis was also mentioned as a candidate for the presidency of the European Council, the position now held by Charles Michel and which will become vacant after this summer’s European elections.
The Romanian candidacy also comes quite late in the process: the US would prefer to complete the appointment in the first quarter, in order to be able to present the new CEO at a meeting of foreign ministers on April 4. To reach consensus on a candidate, the country of origin often has to conduct an intensive diplomatic campaign behind the scenes, and there is hardly any time for that. Moreover, Iohannis can no longer easily meet condition one: the US has made its first preference known loud and clear.
Sweden
Why would you still report? In any case, mild obstruction at a late moment means you draw attention to yourself. Romania, for example, can do this to draw extra attention to the interests of the eastern member states, which feel most threatened by Russian aggression and have long been of the opinion that they are not heard enough in NATO. The countries on the eastern flank also more than meet the NATO expenditure standard, while the Netherlands is still below this after years under Rutte – even though Dutch defense expenditure has risen sharply.
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In any case, the launch of a second candidate would lead to delays and require additional consultation behind the scenes.
Consensus in NATO means that 31 countries must agree, but that could be 32 in the short term. After endless resistance, Hungary is about to clear the way for Sweden’s accession. Turkey originally blocked Stockholm, but after Ankara finally withdrew its objections, Budapest was left alone as a lonely pocket of resistance. Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson was in Budapest on Friday to conclude an arms deal with Viktor Orbán. Hungary ordered four Gripen fighter planes from Saab. Orbán said the Hungarian parliament could remove the final hurdle to Swedish accession on Monday.