That is what RIVM modeler Jacco Wallinga says in a conversation with the NOS. “It is rarely mentioned. But if that were the case, that would be good news,” says Wallinga. The result would be that although omicron causes a faster increase in the number of infections, the peak is not higher than in the delta variant.
That may also have happened in the South African province of Gauteng, Wallinga clarified at the NOS. The number of infections increased rapidly in a short time, but the peak was no higher than in delta, and the epidemic died out more quickly.
Less risk
People also seem to run significantly less risk after an infection with the omicron variant than after an infection with delta, the British health service UKHSA concluded on Thursday. According to preliminary figures, that chance is 50 to 70 percent lower. UKHSA top woman Jenny Harries calls it an ‘encouraging signal’. However, she emphasizes that these are preliminary research results.
The positive message comes a day after Imperial College London already reported that patients with omicron need 20 to 25 percent less hospital visits than patients with delta. The chance of having to stay in hospital for more than a day is 40 to 45 percent lower. RIVM modeler Wallinga says he is happy with the results, but is also reluctant: “We would like to see it confirmed on the basis of more data, and from different countries, before I jump around enthusiastically.”
Virologist Louis Kroes of the Leiden LUMC is also happy with the figures on omicron, he told De Telegraaf. “It could be that we will eventually find that it is not that bad, although we have to wait and see.”
“Every possible windfall is welcome at the moment,” says virologist Ab Osterhaus. “Still, we have to be careful. It’s still very early, we need to get this data confirmed first. Nor should we change policy with every piece of positive news.”