Sunak and Mordaunt are now the only candidates, but the latter is unlikely to reach the necessary number of recommendations from 100 faction members. If Sunak indeed remains the only one, he will be the new party leader on Monday and, after a visit to the king, also prime minister. That would be special for this 42-year-old Brit of Indian descent, especially since Monday is Diwali, the most important Hindu holiday.
Johnson claimed to have enough support from the group on Sunday evening, but concluded that it “isn’t the right thing to do.” Due to the divisions in the Conservative Party, he does not think he has a convincing mandate. “You can’t govern effectively if you don’t have a united party in parliament,” Johnson said.
Need for stability
The Conservative group now mainly needs stability and has a clear preference for Sunak. In no time at all, the former finance minister received the necessary number of recommendations this weekend. On Sunday morning, the man who lost the previous leadership election to Liz Truss officially ran for office. Penny Mordaunt, leader of the Tories in the House of Commons, preceded him before, but has not yet collected a hundred statements of support. She also took part in the race for the premiership after Boris Johnson’s fall last summer.
Most attention this weekend, as is often the case, went to the former prime minister who resigned in July. On Saturday morning, returning from a family vacation in the Dominican Republic, Johnson landed at Gatwick Airport. The arrival was broadcast live by Sky TV. His friends leaked the news to the press that he too would have 100 Conservative Members of Parliament behind him, but no proof was provided.
‘A guaranteed disaster’
Johnson did indeed receive support from dozens of colleagues, even from ministers who had resigned in the summer out of dissatisfaction. Even from Ukraine came pro-Boris voices. More significantly, old friends of Johnson’s defected to Camp Sunak. ‘Boris will always be a hero for making Brexit happen,’ said former Brexit negotiator David Frost, ‘but we have to move on. It is simply not right to run the risk of new chaos and confusion.’
Hours later, International Trade Minister Kemi Badenoch said something similar. Brexit is complete, Corbyn is gone, Covid has devastated the economy and unleashed inflation. What we need now is not nostalgia for the chivalrous elan of 2019. What we need now is patience, honesty, competence and Conservative virtue.” A day later, Steve Baker, the minister who played a key role in the Brexit referendum, called Boris 2.0 “a guaranteed disaster.”
Proponents of Bring Boris Back (BBB) argued that Johnson alone has a voter mandate because he gave the Conservatives the election victory at the end of 2019. Moreover, polls show he is more likely to beat Labor than Sunak. But the problem is that there is still a parliamentary investigation into Johnson. If it turns out next month that he has deliberately lied to the House of Commons about ‘party gate’, he will lose his seat, which immediately ends his premiership. That scenario would be an unmitigated disaster for the Conservative Party.
Stability
Sunak and Johnson had a long meeting on Saturday night, but this peace deal came to nothing. While Sunak announced his candidacy on Sunday morning, it was quiet around Johnson for a long time. Another blow to him when commentator Charles Moore, who is in the House of Lords thanks to his protégé Johnson, wrote that now is not the time for a Boris return. “The country needs a steady and competent hand to guide it through difficult economic times.”
Things got even more precarious for Johnson when former Home Secretary Suella Braverman, who had initiated the fall of Liz Truss last week, put her trust in Rishi Sunak. ‘I’ve supported Boris from the start,’ wrote this prominent Brexiteer The Sunday Telegraph, ‘But we are now in difficult times. We need unity, stability and effective leadership. Rishi is the only candidate who meets these requirements and I am proud to support him.’