Right-wing populist Milei is disappointing in Argentina, but makes it through to the second round of elections

Amid a lingering economic crisis, sky-high inflation and growing poverty, the candidate of the ruling left-wing Peronists surprisingly won the first round of the Argentine presidential elections on Sunday. Economy Minister Sergio Massa (51) showed that Peronism is still viable by winning 36 percent of the votes. He will face the 53-year-old ultra-right populist Javier Milei in the second round next month, who remained stuck at almost 30 percent on Sunday. Right-wing candidate Patricia Bullrich got 23 percent.

Massa’s first place shows that most Argentinians continue to cling to deeply entrenched Peronism. Within this broad social-populist movement of the historical leaders Juan and Evita Peron, Massa is considered quite right-wing. And despite widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, the Argentinians apparently do not judge their ‘super minister’ of Economic Affairs too harshly for government policy.

In the polls prior to the polls, Milei was still considered the favorite. However, on Sunday he achieved the same percentage as during the August primaries, which indicates that, even after a striking campaign mainly via TikTok and other social media, he has not yet succeeded in attracting more new voters. His electorate consists mainly of young Argentinians, who know their country mainly in crisis and are attracted to Milei’s promises of radical change.

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Argentine media analyzed on Sunday evening that some of Milei’s proposals and statements may have been too extreme. For example, his plan to reverse the legalization of abortion, which the Argentine women’s movement achieved in 2020 after years of struggle, would have deterred women in particular from voting for Milei. Milei also said that as president he would immediately cut ties with China – Argentina’s third-largest trading partner.

Unpredictable second round

In the second round (on November 19), the candidate with the most votes wins. In the prelude to this, the big question becomes what the voters of right-wing dropout Patricia Bullrich will do. Immediately after the result, Milei called for cooperation in a speech to “deal with” the left, but Bullrich himself did not want to issue a statement of support on Sunday evening. It is obvious that a large part of her voters will indeed lean towards Milei in the second round and Massa will therefore try to portray him as too much of a gamble.

The opposition cast doubt on Milei’s mental state in the final weeks of the campaign, with critics labeling the flamboyant outsider as ‘unstable’. However, his proposal to ‘dollarize’ the economy was widely echoed in Argentina, where there are sixteen different exchange rates and many people keep cash at home due to a lack of confidence in the banking sector.

In the sharp conflict that will now rage until mid-November, Massa will come up with all kinds of attractive plans as a member of the government – and may already partly implement them. He has already promised to invest more in employment if he wins.

Although Milei still has a chance of winning in the second round, concerns in the region about an ‘Argentine Bolsonaro’ have been somewhat tempered for the time being. The governments of the two left-ruled neighboring countries Brazil and Chile responded enthusiastically to Massa’s surprising leading position. Milei has said that he wants nothing to do with Brazil under the social democrat Lula and was visited during the campaign by Eduardo Bolsonaro, politician and son of former Brazilian president Bolsonaro.

Disappointment among Milei supporters

When the first official results were announced around nine o’clock local time, there was disappointment among Milei’s supporters. “We had hoped that he would win immediately, in the first round. Now he still has to fight a candidate who represents party politics and corruption,” said Giovanni Santori (28) disappointed on the street in front of the Libertador hotel, where Milei organized his election night. Massa’s supporters were celebrating big time. “I promise you that I will take care of you when I become president!” their candidate shouted emotionally.

Javier Milei addresses his supporters on Sunday evening at the Libertador hotel in Buenos Aires.

“We are saved, no fool will come into it [presidentieel paleis] Casa Rosada!” said María Carmen Arias, a teacher from a smaller town in Buenos Aires province. “Milei can of course still win. But hopefully people think sensibly. Massa will have to work hard to really win trust and save the economy.”