Research into voting intentions predicts a shift to the right in the European Parliament | Domestic

In nine of the 27 EU countries, populist parties with an anti-European profile would emerge victorious in the elections. This also includes Belgium, where Vlaams Belang would narrowly become larger than N-VA. Both parties are allocated three seats in the European Parliament.

In France, Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National would become the largest with 25 seats, in Italy Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia could climb to 27 seats (compared to six today), according to the research. Although the Alternative for Germany (AfD) must leave the leading position in Germany to the CDU/CSU, with 20 seats (eleven today) it would still become the second party in the country.

According to the researchers, this will lead to strong growth in the European Parliament by the far-right ID faction and the conservative ECR group. The existing ‘super coalition’ of European People’s Party (EPP), Social Democrats (S&D) and Liberals (Renew), which put Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in the saddle five years ago, would still represent 54 percent of the seats, compared to 60 percent today.

This shift in power could have major consequences for European policy, it said. Because while the Green Deal could count on the support of a center-left coalition during the past legislature, the push to the right may put pressure on the climate agenda. But because pro-Russian parties may also enter the European Parliament, the election results could also have implications for support for Ukraine in its struggle with Russia. The rule of law is also in danger of becoming less important.