Government plans to significantly reduce nitrogen emissions from agriculture are insufficient to achieve the targets for 2030 or 2035. This is the conclusion of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Wageningen University (WUR) and engineering firm Deltares, according to the ANP news agency, after studying the plans that the twelve provinces submitted last year to the now outgoing Minister Christianne van der Wal of Nature and Nitrogen (VVD).
To achieve the set goals, the livestock herd would have to shrink even further, nature reserves would have to be expanded and the way in which agricultural land is used would have to change. But according to the knowledge institutions, it is “not plausible” that this will all be possible within ten years, “given the scale of the task”.
The researchers also wonder whether the government is capable of bringing about all the necessary changes, because this requires “a machine that runs much faster than in the past”, while capacity and expertise have been reduced. They also believe that the provinces’ proposed nitrogen approach is based too much on “unrealistic theoretical assumptions”, because many technical measures are still in the experimental phase and it remains to be seen whether they work in practice.
The authorities advise the government to set priorities, because “not everything can be done at the same time”. For example, areas where nature is in strong decline could be given priority. It must also become clearer who is responsible for what, so that the national government and provinces do not continue to point fingers at each other.
Minister Van der Wal: task more difficult than expected
Outgoing Minister Van der Wal admits to ANP that it “turns out to be more difficult than previously thought” to achieve the nitrogen targets. According to her, the government was initially on schedule, but this changed when scientific research showed last year that the damage nitrogen causes to nature is greater than previously assumed.
After the critical report from the knowledge institutions, Van der Wal says that it is “very clear that more is needed and that sharper choices have to be made.” She agrees that the government should not wait for “perfect plans that have been worked out in every detail”, but should work on solutions step by step and gradually adjust them if necessary.
The current outgoing cabinet had allocated more than 24 billion euros to make agriculture more sustainable, but the costs of all plans submitted by the provinces amount to at least 58 billion euros. And in any case, the question remains how much will remain of all Van der Wal’s plans, because election winners PVV, NSC and BBB see little in her nitrogen policy.