Deemoed, nitrogen minister Christianne van der Wal underwent the public flogging by Johan Remkes on Wednesday. “The agricultural sector has had to deal with faltering and sometimes failing government policies,” said the nitrogen broker. He is ‘shocked by the despair’ in the eyes of some farmers. He pays special attention to the 2,500 livestock farmers who previously expanded their business with the permission of the government, but whose courts subsequently determined that they still needed a permit. These so-called PAS detectors have been living in uncertainty for years. ‘They are victims of an unreliable government’, according to Remkes’ harsh judgment.
As a result, relations between the farmers and the cabinet are still ‘extremely fragile’, warned Remkes. According to him, some of the farmers have the feeling that they are ‘put into a corner as a loser’. Confidence is far from restored.
Van der Wal humbly listened to the nearly 60-minute scolding. She nodded frequently. His words didn’t seem to come as a surprise to her. Immediately after his speech, she spoke remorseful words, which were carefully chosen: she too ‘regrets’ that the nitrogen plans have caused so much ‘unrest and worry at the farmers’ kitchen table’. The infamous ‘nitrogen ticket’ that she presented before the summer, which left many farmers in doubt as to whether their company should disappear, is the first to be taken off the table.
Empty poison cup
It is clear that Van der Wal has resolved on behalf of the cabinet to drink the poisoned cup completely empty. The MPs of the governing parties VVD, D66, CDA and CU have also received these marching orders. They all repeat similar words, from a script devised in advance: ‘This is a big blow on the fingers for the cabinet’, says one. “There has been a false start,” the other tweeted. And now it is time for a ‘new beginning’.
The collective mea culpa does not miss its effect. The best-known champion of farmers’ interests, Caroline van der Plas, says after Remke’s presentation that ‘farmers have not been given so much appreciation and recognition in years’. The leader of the BoerBurgerBeweging is grateful to Remkes for this. “This takes a very big sting out of the discussion.” Farmers’ organizations Agractie and LTO are also cautiously positive.
Afterwards, all parties talk about Remkes’ performance for a long time with admiration. After months of dissatisfaction and protests, the air suddenly seems clear between the cabinet and farmers. ‘Very clever’, is the verdict of all government parties and also the farmers’ interest clubs: this is the Remkes magic.
But as always with magic formulas, the question is how long something like this works. Because, behind all those confessions of guilt, has anything really changed? Remkes still proposes large-scale nitrogen reduction at its core. In the long term, this may be a little more relaxed than Van der Wal had suggested, but it will become stricter in the short term: to start with, 500 to 600 ‘peak loaders’ must ‘end’ their nitrogen emissions within one year.
If necessary with compulsion
So close, because that’s what it comes down to. And if necessary with coercion – a prospect that the cabinet and the House have been carefully trying to avoid since 2019. In Remkes’ reasoning, it is the only chance to quickly reduce nitrogen emissions, so that afterwards there is room to work on innovation, sustainability and to give some perspective to the 2,500 small livestock farms with low nitrogen emissions that have been operating since 2019 without any problems. sitting permit.
Remkes had not yet said whether the first farmers’ organizations responded: nice words, but there can be no question of forced company closures: ‘Not going to happen’ (Farmers Defense Force), ‘we must stay far away from that’ (Agractie), ‘impossible’ ( LTO Netherlands). The first two are still prepared to wait for the government’s response at the end of next week, but let there be no doubt that new farmers’ campaigns will be launched if the response is not satisfactory.
In the meantime, there are signs that this issue is also becoming a new political divisive issue within the governing coalition. D66 wants to follow Remkes – rather today than tomorrow – but the CDA and ChristenUnie already felt hesitation immediately after Remkes’ proposal. First they want to wait and see how the farmers will react, only then do they take their position.
Tuesday will be a crucial day. Then the outcome of the member consultation of LTO, the largest agricultural organization will be announced. If the 35,000 members embrace the Remkes plan, the flag will go out with the cabinet. Then ministers will try to isolate the more radical farmers of, for example, Farmers Defense Force: look, we have moved, we are doing our best, the vast majority of farmers are cooperating, but it is no longer possible to talk to this small group of radicals. They then ruin it for the majority of the benevolent farmers.
But if the LTO members reject Remkes’ plan on Tuesday, the cabinet can prepare for thousands of tractors blocking highways and supermarket supply lines. Then the Remkes magic has already worn off and the cabinet is actually back to square one.