Dead animals, bewildered tourists, overcrowded shelters: it was by no means relaxing to celebrate a holiday on Rhodes last week. And as much as holidaymakers long for that relaxation, climate scientists don’t predict anything good. The forest fires of the past few days are a harbinger of more disaster in the coming years.
It is no coincidence that the wildfires in Greece coincide with a heat wave. The fire is increasing in size and severity due to high temperatures and a lack of moisture in the trees, shrubs, grasses and forest debris, factors scientists say are being influenced by climate change. Research shows that changes in climate are creating warmer, drier conditions, leading to longer fire seasons and brighter fires.
Heat waves long and numerous
And it is precisely those heat waves that will increase sharply. In 2021, researchers from the University of Athens investigated what global warming means specifically for Greece. Their research reveals a grim view of the future.
By the year 2050, heat waves in Greece will last fifteen to twenty days a year longer than now. Their number is also increasing. Between 1971 and 2000, Greece often experienced one heat wave per year, sometimes two. The researchers, led by Professor of Environmental Physics Constantinos Kartalis, assume three possible scenarios for the number of heat waves per year between 2026 and 2045.
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In the most favorable scenario, based on a world in which fossil fuels are rapidly phased out, the researchers assume an average of about six Greek heat waves per year. Wry note: the IPCC climate panel now finds the assumptions in this scenario too optimistic.
Then there is an average scenario, in which fossil fuel emissions and meat consumption continue to grow until 2045 and then decrease. In this case, Athens would end up with an average of nine heat waves per year. And then there is the pessimistic scenario, in which nothing changes. Then Greece has to endure eleven heat waves every year.
Read also: Rhodes travelers are back home after a day and a half: ‘We smelled death’
Greece is drying up anyway, the researchers said. Precipitation will decrease by 10 percent at best and 30 percent at worst. The number of days with a high risk of wildfires will increase by 15 to 70 percent. And extreme weather events will be much more common than now.
In the short term, the researchers conclude, climate change could have a positive impact on tourism by extending the tourist season. Pretty soon, the Greek summer could last from May to September.
At the same time, the increasing heat waves will hurt the tourist experience. ‘Tropical nights’ – in which the ambient temperature does not drop below 20 degrees – will become much more common throughout Greece. The cost of air conditioning for tourists will rise sharply.
Meltemi
Regardless of the climate, Rhodes has conditions that encourage dangerous forest fires. The island is characterized by landscapes where forest vegetation is mixed with urban areas. As a result, the fires reach homes and tourist resorts relatively easily. In addition, Rhodes is known for its northeast wind, which even has a special name – the Meltemi. This wind, which is fun for surfers, usually increases in strength during the day. This was clearly noticeable on Sunday, when firefighting teams had to compete against increasingly higher flames in the course of the afternoon.
The precipitation pattern on the island does not help either. Where there is virtually no rain in the summer, heavy showers in the winter allow the flammable trees and plants to grow.
And that vegetation also consists largely of pine trees. Those trees “thrive” in fire, says professor of rural geography Thanasis Kizos of the University of the Aegean in Mytilini, Lesvos. “More importantly, many forests are no longer managed. Previously, the pine trees were important to the island’s economy. The sap of the tree, sticky as tar, was used in shipbuilding and viticulture.”
In recent decades, tourism has become by far the most important economic activity, says Kizos. “No one has a greater professional interest in a well-managed forest. And it is impossible to clear the forests of combustible material with volunteers.”
Rhodes receives one and a half million visitors annually, out of 125,000 inhabitants. Six out of ten jobs on the island are in tourism. Fewer holidaymakers is bad for the economy. But more tourists on an island in these circumstances is not feasible, Kizos concludes. “The tourists are trapping Rhodes. Well, at least don’t let it get any more.”
Greek fires page 4-5
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper on July 25, 2023.