Putin’s Nuclear Threat Goes Beyond Russia’s Official Doctrine: “This Must Be Taken Seriously” | War Ukraine and Russia

In his speech Wednesday morning, Putin accused the West of “nuclear blackmail” and referred to “statements” by “some high-ranking representatives of leading NATO countries about the possibility and admissibility of the use of weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia” (something Baklitskiy did, incidentally). none of them say they have).

Putin then warned that Russia also has “different kinds of weapons”. “In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the weapon systems at our disposal (so also nuclear, ed.). This is not a bluff. The citizens of Russia can rest assured that the territorial integrity of our motherland, our independence and our freedom will be defended – I repeat – by all the systems at our disposal.”

According to Baklitskiy, Putin goes beyond Russia’s official nuclear doctrine. After all, it states that Russia should only be the first to use nuclear weapons “in a conventional war, if the survival of the country is threatened”.

“Putin adds ‘territorial integrity’ and the very abstract notion of defending ‘our people, our independence and our freedom’. Coming from the person who has sole decision-making power over Russian nuclear weapons, this will have to be taken seriously,” Baklitskiy said.

Certainly in view of Russia’s plans to annex four regions in Ukraine after organizing (fake) referendums. “None of those regions is completely in the hands of the Russians,” Baklitskiy said. “Will Ukraine then be obliged to give it up under threat of nuclear weapons? And what if Ukraine takes the territories again? And what if Putin didn’t use nuclear weapons?”

After all, it is by no means certain whether the use of nuclear weapons would produce the desired result for Russia. So says Lawrence Freedman, professor emeritus of war studies at King’s College London. “The Russians’ campaign in Ukraine was already very gruesome,” he says. “If that has a strategic purpose, you would think it should convince Ukraine to surrender. But in practice the effect is reversed. It has made Ukrainians even more determined to rid their country of the Russian occupier. The Ukrainian government says nuclear strikes would have the same effect.”

Putin also said last year that a “nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought”. The use of nuclear weapons also provokes a reaction from other countries.

In addition, Putin has already threatened with nuclear weapons – including when he announced the invasion at the end of February – but he has never put his words into action. This suggests that he primarily uses the threat as a means to deter opponents.

On the other hand, Baklitskiy calls all possible factors that could trigger the use of nuclear weapons in the middle of a war “a huge gamble”. “It would be safer not to take it,” he says.