NATO pre-war summit. The first with these characteristics since the Cold War. After several decades of quiet about the possibilities of being affected by armed conflict, it takes a bit to get out of the protective shell and look face to face with the growing risk. Now, for the first time, war is not far away. Now for the first time deteriorates our well-being. It is quite likely that the erosion will continue, both because of the economic consequences and because it caught us right after the pandemic, with debt and inflation skyrocketing. And above all because this horror is not comparable to the Yugoslav War, which started 30 years ago and lasted 10. That conflict was local. Our affectation, moral and emotional. NATO, that is to say the United States, stopped it in its tracks twice with a principle of direct intervention. The Serbs immediately understood the message of the allied bombs and abandoned hostilities.
Contrary to that aggressive but geostrategically insignificant Milosevic’s Serbia, Putin’s Russia has greeted the Madrid summit with a very significant escalation. The bombing of a shopping center in the center of Ukraine, far from the scenes of battle. The message is clear to those who believe that Russia has failed in its attempt to take over the entire country due to severe limitations on its capabilities. This is the official position, based both on the withdrawal of the column that threatened kyiv, and on confidence in regaining ground lost by Zelensky’s forces thanks to the sophisticated material that it supplies mainly from the United States. In agreement.
It is likely that the Western road map on the evolution of the war will be fulfilled. The Kremlin’s territorial ambitions or influence are severely limited by the strengthening of NATO, with the entry of Finland and Sweden and the troops deployed near Russia. The awkward partner until very recently, Russian but a partner, is now officially considered a direct threat. Business relationships are reduced to the essentials. Russia will have to spend a lot of time or turn around like a sock so that it ceases to be the enemy of Europe and the West. NATO’s unrivaled strength shows that We are very far from that bipolar world. Russia is sinking because it cannot sustain this war without severely deteriorating the living conditions of the population. Not a happy ending but a victorious one? Bearable costs for Europe, even for the inhabitants of the most indebted and most inflated countries? Let us not allow ourselves to be carried away by optimism because the end of the tunnel is still far away.
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Drones and artillery can turn the tide of war, yes, but nevertheless Russia has two weapons. One is energy. Europe is working against the clock in the event of a cut in gas supply next fall. Even if there are no restrictions, the bills will go up. The other is destructive escalation. In economic terms, Russia is the size of Italy or Brazil. High power, nothing at all. But be careful because its arsenal is the second most destructive on the planet. It is therefore foreseeable that Putin will compensate for the bad news by intensifying the escalation of bombings on civilian targets. How to stop that? How far is he capable of reaching? How will we respond? Escalations are not easy to stop, especially when the climber has risked everything.
The discomfort is already here. The prognosis is that it should get worse. And not by the north of the Mediterranean, where the supplies and the situation will be controlled at any price and we have begun to see with horror. End of free money due to exhaustion. Inflation. Runaway debt. Exponential increase in military spending. Even if the ECB manages to curb the attacks on the debt of Spain and Italy, it is clear that there will be no new funds available. The mana is interrupted at the worst time, so the standard of living of the vast majority will be affected downwards. Not that of the less favored, which is already one step away from becoming catastrophic, but that of the middle classes. Just in case, which is the case, it is better that we prepare ourselves.