Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested that gas will start flowing through Nord Stream 1 again, but that the gas supply will soon be cut off again. The crucial Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 has been closed for annual maintenance since July 11, and is expected to reopen tomorrow (Thurs. 21 July). Germany and Europe fear that Russia will keep the pipeline closed, which would almost certainly lead to gas shortages in Germany, potentially causing major economic and social damage.
In the weeks before the scheduled maintenance on July 11, 67 million cubic meters of gas still passed through the pipeline every day, only 40 percent of the normal volume. Russia said it reduced the amount due to a missing turbine, a component that propels gas through the pipeline. That turbine was in Canada for maintenance and could not be returned to Gazprom due to sanctions. According to Germany, these ‘technical reasons’ are a pretext. Since then, the big question has been: will the pipeline reopen on July 21, and if so, how much gas will pass through it?
New technical problem
Yes, the gas will flow again, but not so fast, Putin seems to be saying now. Not only is Russia still missing that turbine, the Russian president said on Tuesday, at the end of July another part needs to be repaired. “There are two machines there (in the pipeline) and they pump together (more than) 60 million cubic meters a day,” Putin said in Tehran, where he spoke with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts. “If one doesn’t come back, there’s 30 million left. What does that have to do with Gazprom?’
Putin seems to be suggesting that gas will return to pre-maintenance levels after Thursday, but that this will be short-lived. Earlier, Gazprom said recovery of Nord Stream 1’s gas shipments is largely dependent on the return of the missing turbine. It was transferred from Canada to Germany last weekend. It is unclear where the turbine is now. Germany wants the device to return to Russia. Ukraine strongly objects to this.
Since gas transport through Nord Stream 1 came to a halt last Monday, Germany has been under the spell of impending energy shortages. It Bundesnetzagenturthe German network operator, has outlined seven scenarios for the future. Three of them will end in gas shortages next winter.
recession
Even if Nord Stream 1 becomes operational again for 40 percent after Thursday, that will not be enough to fill Germany’s gas reserves enough for the winter. Then society will have to make drastic savings, and certain industrial sectors may be rationed. Economists warn that a recession is imminent.
In the meantime, the European Commission (EC) assumes that no more gas will come through Nord Stream 1 after Thursday. The EC is preparing for a ‘complete and sudden’ stop to all Russian gas supplies to Europe before winter sets in, and is presenting an emergency plan on Wednesday that aims to achieve gas savings of at least 15 percent across the EU.
Putin also came up with a back door on Tuesday, with which he hopes to breathe new life into a daring discussion that tore Europe apart for years. “We have another transport route ready: Nord Stream 2,” the Russian president said. “We can use it.”
Nord Stream 2 is parallel to Nord Stream 1 under the Baltic Sea, 1,234 kilometers from Russia to the north German coast, and has the same capacity. The pipeline is ready and ready for use, but after the Russian attack on Ukraine, Germany decided under great pressure from the US not to use it. This was preceded by many years of quarrels: the US and European allies had warned Germany for some time that the country was making itself far too vulnerable due to its dependence on Russian gas.
Transit port for gas
Nord Stream 1 transported almost 60 billion cubic meters of gas to Germany last year, about ten times as much as the Netherlands imported from Russia that year and more than half of the total German annual gas consumption. Germany is dependent on Russia for a third of all its gas imports. Before the war in Ukraine, this was more than half. Germany is also a crucial transit port for Russian gas to other European countries. Almost 40 percent of all gas (Russian, Norwegian, Dutch and other) arriving in Germany flows through to neighboring countries.