With the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, Putin is destroying the international peace process enshrined in the Minsk Accords. The separatist areas would be given autonomous status, but would remain part of Ukraine.
Western governments have said that recognition could lead to war between Russia and Ukraine. That will partly depend on where Putin draws the boundaries of the separatist republics. If he uses the borders used by the separatist leaders themselves, then some of the republics he recognizes lie on territory under the control of the Ukrainian army. That would increase the chances of a direct war between Ukraine and Russia.
Putin announced the recognition in his most threatening speech of his 22-year leadership of Russia. He said it is time for Russia to protect itself from preparations by the West to use Ukraine as a launching pad for a military attack on the Russian people. Without showing any evidence, he accused “the Ukrainian regime,” which he described as a puppet of the United States, of plans to develop nuclear weapons.
“Russia has every right to retaliate to ensure its own security,” Putin said. “That’s exactly what we’re going to do.”
unsubstantiated messages
He made it clear that recognition of the separatist republics will not be Russia’s last intervention in Ukraine. He said Ukraine can expect more Russian action if it “continues with bloodshed”. Russian state media in recent days have spread numerous unsubstantiated reports of shelling, bombings and explosions by the Ukrainian army. Evidence of mortar hits along the front in eastern Ukraine suggests that the separatists began heavy shelling of Ukrainian positions and houses. Russia denies overwhelming evidence that the separatists have been armed and controlled by Moscow since 2014.
Putin spoke with deep vengeance about Ukraine’s distaste for Moscow since Russia’s occupation of Crimea. He said Ukraine owes its existence entirely to “Communist Russia” and detested Kiev’s decision to purge the country of references to the Soviet Union. “Do you want decommunization?” Putin threatened. “We are ready to show you what true decommunization means for Ukraine.”
NATO
According to Putin, the negotiations with the US and NATO have yielded nothing for Russia. He said Western countries have “ignored” Russia’s security demands — Putin demanded a full NATO withdrawal from Eastern Europe and a written promise that former Soviet republics would never join NATO. “We’re being blackmailed again.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has convened the National Security Council, and the country has also requested an emergency session of the UN Security Council. The West says it is considering sanctions. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg called the Russian action a step towards an invasion. But there were no serious sanctions against Russia on Monday evening. EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said that “the EU and its partners will respond with unity, rigor and determination in solidarity with Ukraine.”
Putin made the decision after one of the most sensational displays of Kremlin theater aired on Russian state television. Seated behind a white table in a palace hall, Putin called the visibly frightened members of his Security Council forward one by one to advise him on the request for recognition by the two separatist leaders. One member who stuttered was scolded by Putin. When the Supreme Leader asked if anyone else had a dissenting opinion, there was silence. Later on Monday, he signed, also live on TV, the decrees formalizing the recognition.
Russia previously recognized two separatist republics in Georgia. In those areas, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russia has opened military bases.