For a moment it seemed as if Emmanuel Macron had taken a big step as the charmer of the Ukraine crisis. The French president announced in the night from Sunday to Monday that he had telephoned US President Joe Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at length and that a summit meeting between the two leaders would be held at his request. Condition for the summit: Russia was not allowed to invade Ukraine. Putin agreed.
But on Monday afternoon, Putin already backtracked: a summit would be “premature”. And on Monday evening, the Russian president informed Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that he recognized the two eastern Ukrainian states of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LNR) as independent. He then stated in a televised speech that all of Ukraine is an “integral part” of Russian history.
Macron’s initiative therefore seemed obsolete in no time due to the developments in the crisis. The French president, who in recent weeks has increasingly portrayed himself as the European leader who might still be able to resolve the Ukrainian crisis with diplomacy, responded Monday evening by immediately organizing an emergency meeting of the French Defense Council. What the next step will be is not certain: by the deadline of this edition, Macron had only said he was “disappointed” with Putin’s decision. However, according to the Kremlin, he does not want to stop talks with Moscow yet – a sign that the French president is not ready to give up his role as mediator just yet.
In recent weeks, Macron seemed to succeed in “playing a mediating role in the conflict”, according to Christine Verger, vice president of the Jacques Delors Institute, a French think tank on Europe. Macron has repeatedly appeared in diplomatic maneuvers about the situation in Ukraine, culminating in his visits to Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in early February. Macron was then the first Western leader to travel to Moscow since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis.
The actions fit the president, who is known for a firm belief in the value of direct, personal contact.
Given Monday’s developments, it is highly doubtful whether his efforts will lead to concrete results. Verger does think that Macron is in any case using this crisis to secure and maintain a place at the negotiating table for the European Union. She recalls that a few months ago the EU ‘didn’t exist’ as a player in the conflict: ‘It was all about Russia, the United States and NATO. Macron is trying to give the European Union a meaningful role by promoting dialogue.” Macron is benefiting from the fact that his country will hold the presidency of the Council of the European Union this six months.
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According to Verger, it also helps Macron that France has “a diplomatic history and significant military capability that other member states do not have.” France has nuclear weapons and the country played an important diplomatic role in 2008, among other things, in the conclusion of a ceasefire between Russia and Georgia. “That background gives Macron an extra capacity and makes Putin respect France more,” she said.
Less critical
Other experts point out that Putin probably also appreciates Macron’s less critical stance on Russia than other Western countries. For example, the French president is one of the few Western heads of government who has openly said that it is “legitimate” is that Russia is concerned about the security of its border with Ukraine and was far from echoing the alarming tone of the United Kingdom and the United States about a possible imminent invasion of Ukraine.
In the European Union, French efforts to play a role in the Ukraine crisis have been encouraged in recent times. “Of course there are differences per Member State, but in general Europe is behind Macron,” says Verger. “You have hardly seen any criticism in the media recently, and especially the countries that have the greatest interest in a peaceful solution – the Eastern countries and the Baltic States – have been exceptionally positive about his efforts to promote dialogue. They remember the history of the twentieth century all too well,” says Verger. referring to the Soviet era.
In Ukraine, some are concerned about Macron .’s diplomatic efforts† Former Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseni Yatsenyuk feared Macron might be able to agree to such a deal more easily because of the approaching presidential elections in France. The president’s team has emphasized that he will not make rash promises and will be in contact with the other heads of government.
Further Escalation
In France itself, as April’s elections draw ever closer, Macron, if successful conciliation can be made, could benefit from an image as a statesman on the world stage – someone less experienced competitors in the battle for the Élysée cannot compete with. fight.
But Macron runs a serious risk if the Ukraine crisis continues to escalate: the combination of his Russia-loving image and the signals that Putin may not take him seriously as a negotiating partner – underlined by Putin’s actions on Monday – could also turn out to be wrong for Macron electorally.
“Right now you see that the other presidential candidates, from left to right, aren’t really criticizing his approach on this file,” Verger says — especially at election time, when every word is weighed. “Everyone understands his efforts to prevent a war.”
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 22, 2022