Bye Eline, for a long time it was thought that the battle for the Elysée, just like in 2017, would be between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. Is that still the case with two weeks to go?
‘Remarkably enough, everything has shifted in recent weeks. Macron still has the best chance of becoming president again. He leads the polls with about thirty percent and is likely to reach the second round.
“His main challenger still seems to be right-wing Marine le Pen, although there is still quite a bit of competition ahead of her. Since last summer, the extreme right-wing Éric Zemmour has suddenly appeared on the political scene. Where in recent years Le Pen tried to rid her party of its racist and radical image, Zemmour jumps in exactly that hole.
“But lately his popularity has been declining a bit and he is in fourth place. This may be due to his pro-Putin statements, as he said earlier that France deserved a patriot like Putin. A more important challenger to Le Pen comes from the far left: Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who is third. I will be following his campaign in the coming days, to see where his success comes from.’
Have the traditional parties that used to compete for the presidency, Les Républicains and Parti Socialiste, completely disappeared from the scene?
‘It is striking what happened to those parties. The conservative-right Les Républicáins revived in the polls last year when their candidate Valérie Pécresse was announced. She has a lot of experience and it would also be special if France had a female president. But now she has lost out to Macron, who, like her, has an outspoken right-wing agenda in this election.
‘The Parti Socialiste, which recently provided François Hollande as president, even seems to disappear completely after these elections. Their candidate is only 3 percent in the polls. If they drop below 5 percent, that may mean the end of the game; then the French state will no longer reimburse their campaign costs.’
The Ukraine war also dominates the news in France. How will that affect the presidential election?
‘There is a risk of a very low turnout. The campaign never really got off to a good start, partly due to covid. But in addition, the war in Ukraine certainly has an impact.
Macron almost makes it a non-event. Because he is busy with the international crisis, he does not participate in a debate with other presidential candidates. As a result, other candidates hardly get the opportunity to get rid of him.
‘But the problem seems broader. A certain political apathy has developed. Many people feel not represented in Paris or have lost hope that their voice matters. One third of French people may not vote, in 2017 that was one fourth. Even if Macron wins, he has a problem; he will then have to close that gap during his presidency.’
The fact that he has been mainly occupied with abroad in recent weeks, including through his conversations with Putin, can that also work against him?
It is important for all French presidents to show that France is participating on the world stage. This certainly applies to Macron; there are candidates, such as Zemmour, who think that France is losing the grandeur of yesteryear. Macron can counterbalance this by his involvement in Ukraine.
Voters seem to appreciate that the current president is constantly looking for a diplomatic solution: he is really only going up in the polls. Another factor is that opponents now dare not attack Macron too hard, which could be interpreted as a lack of loyalty to the national interest.
‘But Putin is an erratic interlocutor, which is a risk. In addition, Macron must be careful not to milk this too much. When official photos of him appeared a week and a half ago in which he was suddenly seen in a hoodie – normally he looks impeccable in a suit – there was amazement.
In the French media it was interpreted as an imitation of the Ukrainian president Zelensky, who since the war has exchanged his suit for a simple appearance with an army green shirt. Some analysts conclude that Zelensky is the real moral leader of the West, if even Emmanuel Macron wants to trade his impeccable appearance because of him.’