In a war, it is not easy to express opinions because the facts are subject to a strict quarantine. Apparently, Putin is going through bad times. Ukrainian troops, armed by the United States and the EU, gain ground and the Russians do not control even the areas that have just been annexed. In parallel, the mobilization of the reservists has made part of the population realize that they are at war. The direct victims of the Ukraine invasion are no longer just Putin’s friendly oligarchs or mercenaries brought in from Syria. They are going to be young Russians with Russian names and surnames who have mothers and fathers who cry when they are called up and even they will cry more if they are returned to them in coffins. Even for a dictatorship it is difficult to resist a war in the XXI century. And more a war not defensive but expansive, and that does not appeal to direct material interests but to immaterial historical values Putin, then, suffers on the battlefield and suffers in the rear. At least, as far as we know.
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Another bad news for Putin has gone unnoticed. Only 8% of the gas consumed in Europe now comes from Russia. The price is high, but the gas that it does not sell to Germany cannot yet be sold to anyone, because the infrastructures are made for this trade route. Just as it is very difficult for Europe to bring gas through other channels, it is difficult for Putin to sell it to third parties through other channels. And, for now, Europe is having more success than Russia in this distressing process of substitution. The future may be better for Russia, but the present is worse. Another open flank.
In retreat on the war front, with protests on Russian soil, with unsold gas. That’s how cornered Putin seems to be. Zelensky finishes off the play and announces that he is willing to negotiate peace with someone other than Putin. Is it possible for that to happen? These types of questions can only be answered by specialists like Marc Marginedas. Reading Catherine Belton and her extraordinary ‘Putin’s Men’, one comes to the conclusion that this president is the product of a conspiracy of the former KGB leaders who will drop him before the regime is loaded. The question is how and when they will do it, they are not fine stylists.