That October 16, 1998, nobody, nobody, expected that Augusto Pinochet was detained at the London Clinic, in response to the international arrest and extradition order issued the day before by the quick reflexes of Judge Baltasar Garzón, within the framework of the Condor operation. Pinochet, who was then a senator for life in Chile, believed he enjoyed diplomatic immunity and took a false step. His mistake: having traveled on a private visit (to have spinal surgery) and without notifying the British authorities. Although in the end the Chilean dictator died in 2006 without having been convicted of any crime, his arrest in London set jurisprudence on crimes against humanity, when the House of Lords ruled that he did not enjoy immunity and, therefore, could be tried. A highly symbolic ruling. And with Putin?What will happen to Vladimir Vladimirovich? Undaunted, he has visited Crimea to mark the ninth anniversary of its annexation.
He International Criminal Court (ICC), based in The Hague, has issued an arrest warrant against him for his alleged responsibility in the deportation to Russia of young Ukrainian children and adolescents from the invaded territories (the figures vary depending on the source). Although the world has shrunk for Putin, it’s hard to imagine the arrest materializing: Russia broke the deck of the founding treaty of the ICC, the Rome Statute, in 2016; China, its main ally, has never signed it (nor has the United States) and I doubt that any of the countries with which Moscow maintains good relations—Tajikistan, Venezuela, Brazil—would dare to draw the noose on an eventual Putin trip. Without detention, there is no process. Only a second option remains, then: regime change.
Tampering and suffocation
Related news
happened with Slobodan Milosevic, the former president of Yugoslavia, in 2001, when the prime minister at the time bowed his head, complying with the order to extradite him to The Hague, in the context of a delicate balance of powers in the post-war period and at the risk of losing a good chunk of economic aid and loans from the US, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Manipulated, suffocated or in exile, it seems unlikely that the Russians will unseat Putin, unless death continues to knock on the door, with a son or a husband in the zinc coffin. Apparently, Russia is preparing to extend conscription.
In parallel, we can only place hope in a mirage: that the plan of China to find a way out of the conflict.