The decline in purchasing power this year is unprecedented due to the screeching inflation. Also around the second oil crisis in the late 1970s and the financial crisis ten years ago, the Netherlands did not experience nearly as large a blow to purchasing power as it threatens to fall this year.
“Households are noticing the consequences of high inflation, and that has repercussions on the economy,” says CPB director Pieter Hasekamp. “There is a growing number of people who are already barely able to get by and for whom the energy bill threatens to become unaffordable.”
Increase in purchasing power
But for next year the CPB is already counting on a slight increase in purchasing power. Due to the billions already reserved in tax relief for workers from the coalition agreement, the planning office is counting on a plus of 0.6 percent on average. But the calculations also show that for many groups with the lowest incomes, there is still a significant loss in the barrel.
With this estimate in hand, the cabinet and coalition can get to work towards Prinsjesdag. It is striking that the national debt is considerably lower than in previous expectations. The CPB expects it to be around 47 percent next year, well below the 60 percent of the economy set by Brussels. This means that there is sufficient financial scope for intervention.
The economy is expected to cool down in the coming year. After two years of corona recovery, the planning office is now counting on only 1.1 percent growth. Inflation is expected to remain high, but not as sky-high as the expected nearly 10 percent this year. The planning office assumes 4.3 percent in 2023.