Pedro Sánchez made in 2020 a high risk bet that in 2019 he did not want and that is why the elections were repeated: the coalition with Pablo Iglesias that he had said -in campaign- that he would not let him sleep peacefully. The dangerous thing was not the pact with a group more to the left, but a government of the PSOE, a constitutional and government party, with a political space for protest that denied the Transition. Something essential for the inauguration of 2020, but very fragile. The proof was the rapid flight of Vice President Iglesias to fight in the Community of Madrid. And be penultimate.
But Sánchez is stubborn. And the Government has done things (ertes, labor reform…). AND to hold on the coalition gave high stick to Irene Montero (We can) in two interesting and important laws, but very delicate: the ‘trans law’ and sexual freedom. To the point that in her first crisis the vice president jumped carmen bald and the Minister of Justice, Juan Carlos Field, who had put up obstacles. The ‘trans law’ has just been approved, but the sexual freedom law – the ‘only yes is yes’– which came into force in November has already collapsed. The desire to mark territory has been fatal to it and since its entry into force in November, more than 700 convicted of sexual crimes have seen their sentences reduced by the courts and more than 70 have been released.
At first Sánchez, to avoid the fight, compromised with Montero’s thesis: it is a good law, but the reactionary judges boycott it. Stupid because given what was happening it was inevitable to correct it. at five months the PSOE has presented a bill to amend it and Podemos has risen up and voted against. It is the first time that the Government fractures in the vote on an emblematic law. And also on the eve of an emblematic day for women’s rights. It’s not a slip. Sánchez could not continue to bear the harmful effects of the law and Podemos has flagged not to amend it. To distance yourself from the PSOE in an election year? To make Irene Montero a candidate against Yolanda Díaz in the general elections? To prepare the breakdown of the coalition? To force Sánchez to throw them out? Only Paul knows.
The failure of the emblematic law of ‘only yes is yes’ has caused the most serious and thunderous confrontation between the two government partners in the entire legislature
The indisputable thing is that an emblematic law of the Government has turned out to be a frog and has divided the Government, the left and society. There is the survey of this newspaper on Tuesday. 57% (majority on the right, center and PSOE) are against the law (because of the results, or on principle), while 30% (many in the Podemos electorate) are in favor because they believe it almost sacred. Inalienable. And Sánchez, finally, has decided to cut his losses and, relying on the votes of the PP, Cs, PNV and PDECat for something of simple common sense: rectify as much as possible a law that, perhaps with good intentions, has had very contrary to those wanted and generated social alarm.
That the PSOE and the PP coincide should not be cause for scandal. The two great parties must face each other, but not engage in a kind of religious war. They have not been able to agree on the reform of the General Council of the Judiciary and now Podemos proclaims that agreeing with the PP is treasonous and threatens the penalty of ‘excommunication’. As in the pre-conciliar Church.
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On Tuesday we saw in Congress the collapse with trumpets of the pact PSOE-Podemos in a very emblematic law that both -for publicity purposes- had turned into a totem. “Et maintenant, que vais-je faire& rdquor ;, as Gilbert Bécaud said in that song. What will Pedro Sánchez do now? He is stubborn, cautious. There will be no quick decision. Do you expect us to march? Such an unauthorized minister would resign, but that is not the script for Iglesias, the factual leader of Podemos. For Sánchez, the divorce from Podemos would be to publicly admit an ideological failure and open the melon of another strategy for the future. It is capable? Will he? Power, can. With the Budgets approved and with elections in the spring and autumn, continuing to govern is possible and he would get rid of some allies who are going to make it very harsh for him, demanding unreasonable maximums, in the ‘gag law’ and the housing law. Better freeze them.
What will Sanchez do? Follow or break? A somersault.