The first photo of 13-F, that of the polls published at eight in the afternoon, does not project the image that the socialists were looking for. They would not revalidate their status as the first force in Castilla y León, which they achieved in 2019, and they would not be able to save an alternative majority to that of PP and Vox. The PSOE, which has repeated with Luis Tudanca as a candidate, would drop considerably compared to its current representation. The stability of the Government of Pedro Sánchez would not be affected, but his regional federation would take an important stick at the polls despite the adverse climate for the PP that has been felt in recent days.
The GAD3 surveys for ‘Abc’ and COPE, the Sigma Dos survey for ‘El Mundo’ and the Sociometric survey for ‘El Español’, coincided in placing the PP as first force, with between 29 and 33 seats, followed by the PSOE (26-30 prosecutors) and Vox (10-13). The most optimistic job for the socialists is that of Metroscopia: 27-29 seats in the Cortes of Castilla y León, by 29-31 of the PP.
If these data are confirmed, the PSOE would therefore not repeat its victory of more than two years ago (it was its first victory since 1983), nor would it have government options. In exchange, they would have the argument that they did not despise at all in recent days: since the PP depended on Alfonso Fernández Mañueco on Vox, the hypothetical entry of the far right into his government would mark the coming campaigns. Furthermore, the Conservative candidate I wouldn’t equal the feat of Isabel Diaz Ayuso in Madrid. To a certain extent, the data would have a sweet taste, because that staircase to the Moncloa that Pablo Casado had imagined would be truncated.
In Ferraz, however, prudence prevailed once the polling stations closed, with the hope that the greater participation registered in urban areas could be translated into a progressive vote. But the idea of the alternative government would have already vanished completely. Castilla y León, however, has never been a fertile territory for the left. The PSOE only governed it between 1983 and 1987, and never recovered the reins of the community afterwards. Is “premature” make assessments, said the president of the socialist MEPs, Iratxe García, on TVE, where she recalled that it is crucial how the last seat is distributed in each of the nine provinces, which can dance for a handful of votes.
The party’s numbers two and three, Adriana Lastra and Santos Cerdán, and the secretary of Strategy and Electoral Action, Javier Izquierdo, were already at the PSOE’s federal headquarters this Sunday. Ministers Félix Bolaños and María Jesús Montero were expected to arrive in Ferraz, as well as more members of the federal executive, such as Felipe Sicilia and Hana Jalloul. The arrival of the general secretary, Pedro Sánchez, was not foreseen in any case. The Prime Minister always follow the electoral nights of the autonomic from Moncloa, not in the general headquarters of his party.