Former president Luiz ‘Lula’ da Silva won the first round of Brazil’s elections, but the left-wing leader failed to secure an absolute majority, as some pollsters had predicted. There will therefore be a second round on October 30. Then Lula takes on the far-right president Bolsonaro who scored a lot higher than expected. “We are going to win this election in the end, we just need a little more time,” Lula told his supporters afterwards. Bolsonaro, who had indicated in advance that he would not accept defeat and did not believe the polls, said he was confident he would secure his reelection in a second round.
Despite the win, it was a disappointing result for the left as it was expected that this would be Lula’s crushing comeback, and already in the first round. And it didn’t turn out to be President Bolsonaro’s big reckoning as expected. The result, with Lula receiving more than 48 percent and Bolsonaro about 43 percent of the vote, a small margin of difference, also shows that Brazilians are deeply divided between left-wing voters and an ultra-right electorate. In recent months, in the run-up to the elections, the battle between the two arch-rivals has been unsettled and polarizing. This caused great tension between Lula and Bolsonaro supporters, which was accompanied by violence and even murder.
Conservative agenda
The fact that Bolsonaro turned out to be stronger than the polls showed in advance indicates that a large proportion of voters, including floating voters, ultimately voted for President Bolsonaro and there is great support for his conservative and far-right agenda. At the same time, a large proportion of Brazilians are progressive and support the left-wing politics of Lula da Silva. At the Praça São Salvador in Rio de Janeiro, where Lula’s supporters followed the results evening on TV screens, that disappointment was noticeable. “I’m afraid that Bolsonaro will soon be able to steal votes from Lula in the second round, and that we will be stuck with him for another four years,” said Barbara Fernandes, a law student, disappointed. Bolsonaro supporter Matheus Gomes is relieved. “Fortunately, people have thought carefully. This is democracy, and I’m sure Bolsonaro will win in the second round.”
The power of the far-right on the political spectrum was also reflected in the seats that prominent Bolsonaristas won in Congress, the Senate and at the state level, prominent Bolsonaristas positions won. This indicates that Bolsonaro’s conservative-ultra-right movement has become an integral part of Brazilian politics, but has actually taken root. If Lula were to win in a second round and become Brazil’s next president, he will have to take this substantial part of politics into account. The fierce battle ahead for the two Brazilian politicians is expected to further polarize the country in the coming weeks. First of all, they will both try to win votes from other candidates who have now won small percentages.