But by the end of March, Orban’s party managed to regain lost ground: for it, according to polls, were ready to vote already about 40% of the voters, and only 32% for the opposition coalition. One of the reasons was that the events in Ukraine overshadowed the internal problems of the country.
Orban is known for meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin more often than other EU leaders. His last visit to Moscow took place a few weeks before the start of the military operation (Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjarto flew to Russia in November 2021 to receive the Russian Order of Friendship). Since the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, Orban has taken a position that ran counter to the official line of the EU: on the one hand, he joined the sanctions against Russia, on the other hand, he declared his readiness to veto them if they affected the energy sector, and also repeatedly stated his refusal to supply weapons to Ukraine and transport them through Hungary. Orban also promised to block the decision to introduce a no-fly zone over Ukraine with the involvement of NATO forces.
Speaking via video link at the European Council summit on March 24, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that Orban decide which side he is on. “Hungary… I want to stop here and be honest. Once and for all. Listen, Viktor, do you know what is happening in Mariupol?” he turned to the Hungarian prime minister. Orban later stated that “Hungary is on the side of Hungary.”
In his triumphant speech on the evening of April 3, Orban said that his party will remember this victory “for the rest of its life”, as it had to fight with a large number of opponents. To them he carried and Zelensky. “We have won a great victory – a victory so great that it can be seen from the moon, and certainly from Brussels,” said Orban.
Time Edition predictsthat, despite his victory, Orban will face a number of challenges during his fourth term in office. First of all, payments blocked by the EU (their volume is about 6-7% of the country’s GDP) will not be transferred to Budapest, which brings the deterioration of the already unstable economic situation in the country closer. In addition, the policy of supporting Moscow, which has already led to the political isolation of Hungary within the EU, will further destabilize relations between Budapest and Brussels.
Vučić again became president
The presidential and parliamentary elections in Serbia on April 3, unlike Hungary, were held without intrigue: Aleksandar Vucic was expected re-elected for a second presidential term with a score of 60%, while his Serbian Progressive Party received 43% of the vote. Vučić’s closest rival, the leader of the United Serbia opposition coalition, Zdravko Ponos, won only 17% of the vote, the coalition – 13%. At the same time, for Serbia, the victory of a presidential candidate in the first round, as well as the re-election of the incumbent president for a second term, is an infrequent occurrence. The ruling party is expected to form a new coalition with friendly forces to win a majority in the 250-seat parliament.
Photo: Antonio Bronic / Reuters
Vucic, like Orban, with the start of the military operation in Ukraine, took a position that was contrary to the line of Brussels. Despite the fact that the country is not a member of the EU, in 2012 Serbia received the status of a candidate for accession, and therefore the EU expected that Belgrade would adhere to a single course with the unification. However, Serbia remained the only European country that, although it advocated the preservation of Ukraine’s sovereignty, did not join the anti-Russian sanctions of the West, and the national air carrier Air Serbia initially increased the number of flights to Moscow after European countries closed their airspace to Russian airlines.
Western countries have repeatedly called on Belgrade to join the sanctions against Russia, Vucic has repeatedly spoken about the pressure exerted on him. “What do you want from Serbia? Impose sanctions against Russia? And why didn’t you introduce gas and oil?” he asked, commenting on the EU’s demand to join the sanctions. Vučić also said that Serbia is an independent state that is not part of the European Union, and even admitted that he could impose sanctions against Serbia already. Vučić’s re-election will mean for Serbia greater scrutiny from the EU regarding the country’s policy towards Russia, notes Politico edition.
When summing up the election results, Vučić acknowledged the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on their outcome and said that he did not plan to change his course of balancing between the EU, Russia and China, and also announced the military neutrality of the country. “We will support policies that are important to Europeans, Russians and Americans, namely…military neutrality,” he said. The Serbian leader also said that the country would try to maintain cooperation with Russia in various fields.
The editor-in-chief of the Balkanist project, Oleg Bondarenko, told RBC that he does not expect foreign policy shifts in Belgrade’s policy. Serbia has a unique opportunity to develop relations with the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, the Arab world, so one should not expect a drift towards the EU, because over the past year no one in Brussels has named a specific date for the country’s entry into the EU, he explains.
“The victory of Vucic and the party supporting him is a combination of factors. Of course, these are the unconditional successes of the president, but also the crisis in which Europe has plunged. The issue of maintaining power in those countries where it is stable is natural, so we can draw a parallel between Vučić’s victory and Orban’s victory in Hungary,” Bondarenko believes.
The Serbian president himself on Sunday, speaking to reporters, noted that a direct consequence of the situation in Ukraine was the strengthening of right-wing forces in Serbia, Bondarenko added. Vučić, the expert notes, is in fact the only Serbian politician since the time of Slobodan Milosevic who wins the first round for the second time – before him, the story was more typical when the winner was determined in the second round, bypassing the opponent by a few percent of the votes. At the last elections, the entry barrier for parties was lowered, which will make the composition of the parliament more colorful, but the opposition is unlikely to be able to seriously oppose the government’s plans, the expert concluded.