He was almost at the gates of Moscow, but at the last moment Yevgeny Prigozhin did not bite through.
After a day that was as historic as it was absurd, in which the mercenary boss unleashed a massive uprising, occupied the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and then advanced across Russia with hundreds of military vehicles to the capital, Prigozhin suddenly killed his own putsch.
Thousands of heavily armed Wagner fighters, Prigozhin announced on Saturday evening in an audio message would immediately retrace their steps. “In 24 hours we have advanced almost 200 kilometers from Moscow without shedding a single drop of blood from our fighters. Now, however, the time has come for blood to flow,” said Prigozhin. “We will turn around with our columns and leave in the other direction.”
Prigozhin’s retreat came about after hours of mediation by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, who called Russian President Vladimir Putin at least twice. According to the Belarusian state news agency Belta, Prigozhin finally “accepted” Lukashenko’s proposals to halt Wagner’s advance and agreed to “next steps to de-escalate tensions.” At that point, National Guard units had already taken up positions around Moscow’s arterial roads and a battle for the Russian capital seemed imminent.
Thoroughly prepared mutiny
Prigozhin’s mutiny – the biggest uprising since the failed coup in 1991 – began after an alleged Russian army rocket attack on Wagner’s encampments in Ukraine, but must have been thoroughly prepared. Images from Russian road users showed well-ordered columns of tanks on trailers, anti-aircraft systems with rotating radars and a procession of tankers to fuel the vehicles. The Wagnerians brought down a helicopter and a transporter; roadblocks of trucks parked transversely were pushed aside almost carelessly.
The question is therefore what really moved Prigozhin to call a halt to his coup. According to Lukashenko’s press service, an “absolutely advantageous and acceptable proposal for ending the situation” is on the table, with “safety guarantees for the Wagner fighters.” It was not clear on Saturday evening whether Prigozhin’s demand that the leadership of the Russian Defense Ministry should be held accountable was also accepted.
Read also: Wagner leader Prigozhin threatens to move on Moscow. What preceded his mutiny?
The Russian president seemed to have lost his temper over the past 24 hours. Prigozhin did not direct his anger at Putin, but only at Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu. In response, it was precisely the Kremlin that turned things upside down. The authorities launched a criminal case for incitement to a coup – an offense punishable by 20 years in prison. In a grim televised speech on Saturday morning, President Putin spoke of “betrayal” and a “knife in the back” and made a direct comparison with the Russian Revolution of 1917.
The big question, therefore, is how the Kremlin can get the genie back in the bottle, now that direct confrontation seems to have been averted. To compensate for the heavy losses in Ukraine, Putin has increasingly relied on Prigozhin’s mercenary army. Wagner was allowed to recruit thousands of prisoners and hunt to death at Bachmoet. At the same time, tensions with the regular army rose at a rapid pace, not least because of an almost constant stream of video speeches in which Prigozhin spewed unrelenting criticism of the defense leadership. In addition, the Wagner boss was disdainful of Putin himself and questioned the usefulness and necessity of the war in Ukraine. Russian citizens can face heavy prison sentences for such comments.
Diversion to Belarus
Even more dangerous for Putin is that the internal weakness of his regime has been exposed. The Kremlin demanded that Priogzhin submit to the Russian Defense Ministry, but Wagner refused to sign a contract. When the mercenaries revolted, Putin’s National Guard, a huge and heavily invested paramilitary organization, was unable to act effectively. The Russian police, and especially the Russian armed forces, were even conspicuously aloof this Saturday. Rostov-on-Don, a strategic city from which the war in Ukraine is being directed, fell without a shot being fired.
The Russian troops at the front may have more or less succeeded in coping with the Ukrainian offensive, but there seems to be a power vacuum in Russia itself, as Prigozhin has shown with his rapid advance. This can be different warriors, such as the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, may spark ideas. Prigozhin himself seemed to disappear through the side door to Belarus on Saturday night. Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the mercenary boss would leave for Belarus. The criminal case against Prigozhin would be dropped.
The people of Rostov-on-Don didn’t seem to mind. After the local population had recovered from the initial shock, jolly twenty-somethings had their picture taken with the Wagner forces. When the mercenaries got ready to leave on Saturday evening, there was even applause and shouting: ‘Wagner! Wagner!’