The weekly Question Time in the Scottish Parliament, on Thursday, is not about the subject that is so preoccupied with politics here: the arrest of Nicola Sturgeon (52), Scotland’s beloved Prime Minister three months ago and still a member of parliament. The opposition wants to show that there are more important issues than the scandal at the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP), such as a dangerous road between Inverness and Perth, the shortage of oncologists and the closing of rural schools. And the Scottish National Party itself doesn’t want to rub the stain.
Prime Minister Humza Yousaf is happy to address the TV cameras after Question Time in Edinburgh about the hard report about partygate and Boris Johnson, but he avoids questions about Sturgeon. Have you seen her in the last few days? “No.” And he walks away.
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Although the former prime minister of the UK attracts attention, the scandal at the SNP – also involving a former prime minister – keeps Scottish politics busy. And this is not an investigation by politicians, but a corruption investigation by the police.
The fraud investigation has been ongoing since 2021. The party raised around €760,000 in donations in 2017 to campaign again for Scottish independence in the future, after the defeat in the 2014 referendum. But the government in London refuses to give permission for a new referendum. It is now suspected that the campaign money has been spent on day-to-day expenses of the SNP, necessary to compensate for loss of membership and falling contributions. The police arrested in April Sturgeon’s husband and ex-party chairman Peter Murrell and treasurer Colin Beattie.
On Sunday, what the party had feared for weeks happened. Sturgeon himself was also arrested and interrogated.
Without charges
Now the word “arrest” deserves some nuance. In such an investigation, the Scottish police must arrest a person if they wish to question them. That is different from, for example, England. Like Murrell and Beattie, Sturgeon was released after questioning and without charge.
Still, scholars and commentators believe this scandal could mark a turning point for Scottish politics. “The period of SNP dominance is coming to an end,” says James Mitchell, professor of public policy at Edinburgh.
The two leaders of opposition parties think so too. And hope so, they say after question time. “Our governing party is embroiled in scandal and is incompetent. This distracts from what it’s all about: the high cost of living and better cancer treatments. After 16 years it is time for a change,” said Anas Sarwar of Scottish Labour. Douglas Ross of the Conservatives: “This damages Scotland’s international reputation. This is a blot on the SNP. I think there are significant opportunities in the next election.”
The Scottish National Party has long ruled the roost with Prime Ministers Alex Salmond (2007 to 2014) and Nicola Sturgeon (2014 to 2023). As of 2021, the party is one seat short of an absolute majority; that is why there is a government coalition with the Green Party. Sturgeon was a much-loved prime minister for eight years, at home and abroad. She was popular in Europe, mainly because she was fiercely opposed to Brexit. She was praised for handling the pandemic well, but like the rest of the UK, Scotland’s economy is struggling and the Scots are suffering from sky-high inflation. In February, Sturgeon unexpectedly resigned, officially because she wanted more time for herself, but in hindsight the police investigation also seems to have played a major role. A month and a half after her resignation, her home in Glasgow was raided and her husband was arrested.
Humza Yousaf became the new Prime Minister of Scotland in March after a fierce leadership battle. He’s having a hard time. Although Sturgeon has not formally expressed her support for him, everyone sees him as the man pushed forward by her. “He is downright weak,” says Professor Mitchell. Yousaf, according to Mitchell, should have had Sturgeon resign as an MP or suspended her until the investigation is complete. Various SNP members also insisted on this, because Sturgeon himself has suspended party members for lesser issues, such as a minister in 2015 who was under investigation for mortgage fraud. Mitchell: “Instead, Sturgeon was sent flowers and Yousaf called on party members to support her or else leave the party.” Conservative leader Douglas Ross says: “We can now see that the current prime minister is too weak to stand up to his predecessor.”
The scandal
Ross clashed hard with Yousaf an hour earlier in question time. He asked critical questions about the highway between Inverness and Perth, where almost ten people die every year. When Ross asked for the second time how many road deaths are still to come, Humza Yousaf lost his mind. “This is all to distract from the scandal in his party. From Boris Johnson, who misled the people of this country and the UK. No one will forget that Douglas Ross has always supported him.”
His party members applauded this swipe, which happened about five more times during the rest of Question Time.
Ross shrugs it off afterwards. “It’s very common here. SNP politicians tend to applaud anything the Prime Minister says.” Political scientist Mitchell also believes that the Scottish parliament is not enough of a counterweight to the government. In 1999, Scotland received considerably more powers of its own, but these have mainly given more power to the Scottish government, not parliament. “This results in a lack of accountability of the government to parliament, a relatively weak parliament.”
It is unclear how long the investigation into the fraud at the SNP will take. But it seems clear that this case will play a role in the next national elections of the United Kingdom. The SNP fell in polls and the current leader is much less popular than his predecessor. Of the 59 Scottish House of Commons members, 44 are now from the SNP and Labor has only one. In the elections, probably in the autumn of 2024, 57 seats are at stake due to reclassification. The SNP is still the largest in a last poll this week (38 percent), but Labor is only 4 percentage points behind. Things will become more tense in many Scottish constituencies and there are more seats up for grabs for Labor in relatively left-wing Scotland.
In 2014, 55 percent of Scots voted to remain part of the United Kingdom. Since then, the desire to become independent has hovered around 50 percent. With the police investigation and the unrest within the SNP, a new referendum seems further away than ever. “The SNP has failed to really increase support for independence since the 2014 referendum, despite Brexit, despite a succession of deeply unpopular Tory governments and prime ministers,” says political scientist Mitchell. He sees Labor eventually becoming the biggest in Scotland. His colleague John Curtice, a professor and an authoritative poll analyst, is much more cautious. “Tell me the outcome of the police investigation and we will know more.”
A version of this article also appeared in the June 17, 2023 newspaper.