Poor Moldova fears to be the next country on Putin’s wish list

† Out of desperation Maria has parked the mint green Lada on the verge of the dual carriageway. The Ukrainian refugee comes from Odessa, and stranded in the Moldovan capital Chisinau, she now speaks to every passer-by. Whether they have money or food. “There was no room in the reception center for tonight,” she says. An acquaintance of hers with five children was allowed to stay. She has no idea where she will sleep tonight. Then she crosses the line and doesn’t want to talk anymore.

Of all the neighboring countries of Ukraine, small Moldova (2.6 million inhabitants) has been in the most precarious position since the outbreak of the war. The poorest country in Europe, located in a sort of armpit of Ukraine, has seen about 100,000 Ukrainians cross its borders in a week and a half. Especially in the capital Chisinau – located about 65 kilometers from the border – many Ukrainians camp in halls that have been converted into emergency shelters.

For the country it is the biggest crisis it has experienced in ages. And in fact a second crisis is added: the world suddenly looks very different for the ex-Soviet state (not an EU member, not a NATO member) now that Russia appears capable of invading a neighboring country. In short, the war makes the future of Moldova a lot more uncertain.

Diapers

The first thing Vissarion Bredeu says is: “We are just like Ukraine”. The seventeen-year-old high school student volunteers at the reception center that has been hurriedly set up in recent days in the Moldexpo congress center on the outskirts of the capital. Moldovans in orange vests – according to the organization there are about three hundred here – walk in and out with donated food, diapers and pillows. All of this is intended for the four thousand refugees who live in a nearby hall. Every so often a new bus with refugees from the border arrives on the busy forecourt. Bredeu: “I’m helping here because tomorrow we ourselves can be in the position that the Ukrainians are in now.”

This is how more volunteers describe their reason for being here. They identify all too well with Ukrainians. Like their larger neighbor, Moldova has a long history as part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union. The Russian national poet Aleksandr Pushkin even lived there for a while (in exile) in the nineteenth century. The country is predominantly Romanian, but Russian is widely spoken.

Moreover, in the east of Moldova – just like in Ukraine – there is a separatist, Russian-influenced republic with a mainly ethnic Russian population: Transnistria. Exactly thirty years ago, in March 1992, a short war broke out – Bredeus’ father still fought in it – and since then Transnistria has controlled a narrow strip of land itself. Formally, no country recognizes Transnistria, in fact Russia supports the ‘little country’.

The current war is fueling the fear that the Russians want to shift borders here too. Why not link Transnistria, or perhaps even all of Moldova, to the ‘new’ Russian Ukraine? “I think they are waiting for the right moment,” says volunteer Jon Puica (29) – his father also fought in 1992.

According to sixteen-year-old Daniela, school is about nothing else. She came this afternoon with a friend to help. “We discuss at school that we should have a suitcase ready. And I have already discussed with my parents exactly how it would go if we had to flee.” Her mother is a doctor, so she would at least stay. “So it’s just my dad and me.”

Then suddenly she is gone: someone calls her to help lift a heavy suitcase from a refugee.

Pro-European

The Moldovan government, led by the emphatically pro-European Maia Sandu, makes no effort to downplay the fear of the Russians. In a conversation with NRC Minister Nicu Popescu (Foreign Affairs) emphasized early last week that his government is forced to look at all kinds of scenarios. “This is a risky part of the world. And the worst-case scenarios have gotten a lot worse since the raid.” That sentiment was reinforced last week when Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko showed a map of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that suggested a link with Transnistria.

The difficult geopolitical situation does mean that European countries are suddenly all ears for Moldova – and that the country itself sees an opportunity to join the EU. Popescu and President Sandu have been calling countless European leaders and ministers over the past few days, asking for support for the ‘territorial integrity’ – which they were given. French Foreign Minister Jean Yves le Drian even explicitly said that Moldova could be next. In addition, on 2 and 3 March, EU foreign affairs representative Josep Borell paid a visit to Moldova, a trip that required an hour-long drive from Romania, as the country’s airspace is closed for security reasons due to the war.

After his departure, Moldova decided to submit a final application for EU membership, as did Ukraine a few days earlier. Just three days earlier, Popescu had said he would not take advantage of the tense situation in Europe to apply for membership.

The Moldovan political scientist Dionis Cenusa, affiliated with the University of Giessen in Germany, thinks this is a striking turn of events. “I think when Kiev and Georgia applied, the Moldovan government decided it couldn’t stay behind anymore.” According to him, it shows how fast everything moves in Europe. However, according to him, the application does not immediately stand a chance. Unless the EU feels morally compelled by the war to admit Ukraine as a candidate. Then the pressure can increase to also admit Georgia and Moldova.”

Also read: Moldova applies for EU membership

Cenusa itself is inclined to put the Russian danger to Moldova into perspective. He understands the fear among the Moldovans, but Putin already has his hands full with Ukraine. Nevertheless, he fears that the country will come under great pressure if it were to suddenly border Russia. Russia, he thinks, will push for a federalization of Moldova from its new position as a neighbor to solve the Transnistria problem.

Still, Cenusa sees the biggest risk for Moldova in something else. As far as he is concerned, the large numbers of refugees that Moldova may have to host is a much bigger challenge than Transnistria – even if everyone is mainly talking about the latter.

It is like the story that Aurelia Hincu tells when she is asked how the Moldovan society can deal with all refugees. She is the director of the Cultural Palace for Railway Employees – now a collection point where Moldovans can donate food and belongings. Recently a very old woman came to bring some clothes. “It was very sweet.” But Hincu also immediately thought: I know how difficult it is to manage on a small Moldovan pension, especially now that inflation is rising. “I thought: such a woman needs help herself.”

For the poorest country in Europe – the economy is smaller than that of Flevoland – a refugee crisis is simply a major problem. The economy of Moldova is notoriously weak: a lot of wine is grown on the gently sloping slopes, but there is hardly any more export. Expensive problems abound: the infrastructure is substandard, healthcare lags behind the rest of Europe. Cenusa: “That war is not over in a few days. And then Ukraine has to be completely rebuilt.” Don’t underestimate how long this can take, he means. And in the meantime there should be a bed and food for everyone, and bus transport from the border.

Of course, not all refugees remain in Moldova. Many people are already traveling on to Romania. In Chisinau, in front of the expensive hotels along the central boulevard, there are Porsches with Ukrainian number plates. The bumpy diesel bum to Romania suddenly drives twice a day instead of every few days.

But there are also tens of thousands of people like Aleksandr Gasanov, who fled Luhansk in 2014 and now fled Kharkov again. He doesn’t know where he should go this time, he tells in front of Moldexpo. He would like to work in Germany, but he does not know whether he will succeed. With his miner knowledge, he may not get that far either.

Or people like Burkhan Akhmedov: a Ukrainian naturalized Uzbek, who hangs out with his three small children and wife in a playground near the Ukrainian embassy. He says he forgot passports in the chaos of the departure – really, he says, there were explosions and then you no longer pay attention to what you are doing. He doesn’t know yet where they’re going tonight.

So far, Moldova has received 20 million euros from the European Union in aid to heal refugees. Minister Popescu already warns that the impact of the war on the economy will be much broader. “Foreign investors are staying away. And stuff that normally came via Odessa, now has to travel a more expensive route, via Romania.” It is not without reason that Moldova has declined to participate in the imposition of sanctions – the economy simply cannot support it, Popescu said.

Political scientist Cenusa sees one more positive aspect: if Ukrainians decide to settle here for a longer period of time, it could help to reverse the population decline in Moldova. Many young, highly educated people leave Moldova to live and work elsewhere. “If fifty to one hundred thousand people are added and they are going to live here permanently, then in a certain sense that could be good for Moldova. There are already Ukrainian villages, a lot of Russian is already spoken. Integration is quite possible. In theory, that could be a positive scenario.”