The political battle for climate and nitrogen policy largely determines the outcome of the Provincial Council elections on 15 March. This is evident from a poll by I&O Research among 2,489 voters.
The most important theme for voters is climate and energy policy: 43 percent of the respondents indicated that they find it important. Close behind is nature and the environment (42 percent) and nitrogen (31 percent). These are themes in which provinces play an important role.
This trend seems favorable for parties on both sides of the political spectrum that have made nitrogen, nature and climate their priorities. It can give parties such as GroenLinks and the Party for the Animals a boost as well as the BoerBurgerbeweging, which is participating for the first time in all twelve provinces. I&O Research wrote earlier this monthfollowing favorable polls for BBB: “We see that BBB benefits when agriculture and nitrogen is a more current issue, while JA21 benefits from discussions about immigration.”
The extent to which nitrogen lives among voters differs considerably per province
The cabinet’s nitrogen plans are highly motivating to prospective BBB voters: 55 percent of this group indicate that they find this theme important. This topic is also an issue among people who vote for GroenLinks (49 percent) and the PvdD (48 percent). The VVD supporters are mainly concerned with the economy (49 percent). The big difference between the Randstad and the rest of the Netherlands is striking. For example, nitrogen is much less common in Utrecht, North and South Holland (between 28 and 30 percent), while voters in Drenthe (51 percent) and Overijssel (46 percent) are much more concerned.
The government has set itself the goal of halving emissions by 2030. To this end, it wants to force 3,000 major polluters to stop if necessary and buy out 10,000 farmers or have them work in a more environmentally friendly way.
NRC is looking at what is happening in all provinces during this campaign. Read the first episode about Utrecht here, where the historic Amelisweerd forest continues to cause tensions.
In The Hague, the coalition parties are concerned about the March election results. Critical parties such as BBB and JA21 are on a big win. This means that many provincial councils can pull to the right and, when it comes to nitrogen policy, can seriously hinder the cabinet. This can also happen in the Senate, which is elected by the Provincial Council.
Moreover, provincial departments of coalition parties VVD and CDA are much more critical of the nitrogen measures than the parties in The Hague. To prevent an imminent stalemate between ‘The Hague and provincial authorities, the cabinet is considering measures to force provinces to cooperate.
The coalition itself is less and less united about nitrogen policy during the election campaign. CDA party leader for the Senate Theo Bovens distanced himself on Sunday in the TV debate at WNL from the deadline of 2030, as agreed in the coalition agreement. He voted against the statement of Paul van Meenen, the party leader for coalition partner D66, that ignoring this target date would lead to a ‘standstill’. VVD party leader Edith Schippers did not want to comment on that statement because she thought it was “only intended to polarize”.
The poll by I&O Research shows that voters have more confidence in the provincial (45 percent) than in the national government (36 percent). Here too, the gap between Randstad and the rest of the Netherlands is striking. The lowest confidence in The Hague is measured in Limburg (25 percent), Drenthe (26 percent) and Overijssel (31 percent). In Utrecht, confidence is 46 percent.
A version of this article also appeared in the newspaper of February 27, 2023