In the midst of the bad news on the foreign scene, on Sunday there was good news for democracies and for Europe: Polish voters, with a record participation of more than 74%, gave the parliamentary majority to the three opposition forces democratic and Europeanist. Poland, which was a pioneer in the fight against the old communist regimes, will thus be able to recover, internally, the battered path of the rule of law and, externally, once again occupy a central role in the European Union (EU).
With the count completed, the three opposition parties have more than 53% of the votes against the nationalist and ultra-conservative right of Law and Justice (PiS). The match of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, in power for eight years, has come first (35.4%), for the third consecutive time, but with an insufficient result to be able to form a government, even with the support of a far-right party (7%). In terms of seats, the sum of the Civic Platform (157), the Third Way (65) and the Left (26) represents 248 deputies, that is, 17 above the absolute majority (231 seats).
The process towards the formation of a new Government can take several weeks. The Polish president, Andzrej Dudawho owes his position to PiS, will remain in office until 2025 and can hinder the post-electoral scenario, starting by proposing to a candidate from Law and Justice – the most voted list – the first attempt to form a government, a maneuver doomed to failure, but which will delay the opposition’s coming to power. It is to be hoped that the rules of the game of parliamentary democracies will be respected despite the fact that the ruling party assures that it does not rule out the possibility of forming an unlikely majority with offers to opposition parties that have already been rejected outright.
In any case, the victory of the pro-European opposition is good news for Poland and for Europe. The leader of the opposition bloc, Donald Tusk, in his capacity as former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council, has committed himself in the campaign to put Poland back on the path of a democracy without authoritarian bridles and Europe. At the EU level, Viktor OrbánHungarian Prime Minister, will now be more isolated, with the endorsement of his ally Robert Fico in Slovakia. It is also good news for Ukraine after the grain crisis.
However, it is at the internal level where the leader of the opposition to what threatened to become an authoritarian regime and limitation of freedoms must deploy all his political skills to govern at the head of a heterogeneous coalition of three parties who share, above all, their rejection of PiS. This should be done taking into account the extreme polarization of Polish society. Tusk, to begin with, has to reestablish the rules of the rule of law, starting with return independence to the judiciary, the previous step to unlock the European funds retained by Brussels. We must not forget that Law and Justice, Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s ultra-conservative party, has anchored its tentacles in the structures of the State for eight years, including public media. It is time to prove that democracy is capable of making illiberal episodes like this reversible, once Polish citizens have decided at the polls that their place in the world is Europe.