Poland claims its central place with words and deeds

One European country is visiting US President Joe Biden – in addition to the summits in Brussels – during his visit to the continent in crisis. And that can only be Poland. The war in Ukraine transformed the scorned, recalcitrant and anti-rule of law pariah into the strategic pivot of both NATO and the European Union. Poland is no longer a dutiful ally. It is suddenly a frontline state, arms turntable and refuge for millions of refugees.

Bidens made his appearance in southeastern Rzeszow on Friday to thank Poland for the “huge importance” of the country’s support to Ukrainian refugees, he said in a meeting with aid workers. Visiting US military personnel stationed in the same city, he said: “I don’t want to sound philosophical, but you are in the middle of the struggle between democracy and an oligarch.”

This Saturday, Biden speaks in the courtyard of the Royal Castle in Warsaw. The speech is already compared in advance in Polish media with the historic speeches of John F. Kennedy (“Ich bin ein Berliner”, 1963) and Ronald Reagan (“mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall”, 1987) in Berlin. Poland hopes to set the stage for a speech that will push Europe’s future in the right direction.

American presidents, whether Democrat or Republican, have almost royal status in the Polish republic. But the country is now demanding princely recognition of its historical right about Russian aggression. And claims its central place in Europe with big words and bold deeds.

Loud captain

The shift in center of gravity to the east is forcing the EU to take a more drastic turn than NATO, which has always valued Poland as the strongest military force on its eastern flank. NATO is hardly concerned with democratic values ​​and liberal human rights. The European Union has more to do with Poland: a prominent Member State that has placed itself outside the European legal order by eliminating the independent judiciary and is now the loudest leader of defensive, humanitarian and moral aid to Ukraine.

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Yet Biden is also cautious during his Polish trip. Besides his speech, a support for American soldiers and a look inside a refugee center, he only has a formal conversation with Polish President Andrzej Duda. As Biden’s colleague, he is his logical interlocutor. Moreover, in his second term, the Polish president turns out to be the moderating force of the conservative-nationalist PiS government. For example, under American pressure, Duda recently vetoed a controversial media law and a radical education reform† In addition, he has taken the initiative to appease the rule of law conflict between Warsaw and Brussels – and in this way to free billions in blocked European money. That may ease Biden’s discomfort at putting a democratically declining Poland at the center, just as autocratically-led Turkey is once again being embraced, to fight the greater evil in the world.

Still, it rubs: Trumpfan Duda was re-elected after a downright homophobic campaign. And his bill to dismantle the disciplinary chamber in which critical judges are punished is coming insufficiently meet to European requirements for the Polish rule of law. Where Biden has come to Europe to radiate as much western unity as possible, Poland demonstrates the division time and again. It wants to provide Ukraine with much stronger guns and punish Russia with complete economic isolation that it will never recover.

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Poland promised Ukraine dozens of MIG fighter jets without coordination with the US. During a visit to besieged Kiev, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Deputy Prime Minister and de facto leader of Poland, suggested sending a NATO peacekeeping force to Ukraine. Both proposals could only lead to further escalation, according to more cautious allies. Proving to Ukraine that the lack of military intervention is not the fault of the neighboring country is more important to Poland than proclaiming cohesion.

Within the EU, being morally right is more essential for Poland than unanimity. In an interview with the pro-government Polska Times Kaczynski called both Germany and France “pro-Russian” on Friday. Morawiecki never misses an opportunity to confront Western countries with their „huge mistake” that Polish warnings were not heeded. He advocates “crushing” Russia with a total ban on the import of Putin’s gas and oil, on which many European countries depend (and Poland itself cannot do without). And Duda wants Ukraine „an urgent route immediately” to offer EU membership.

No redistribution of refugees

Poland, along with other countries from Central Europe, became a member of NATO in 1999 and of the EU five years later. The focus of both alliances remained very much on Western Europe. Even when the British punched a hole in the European Union, Poland – the fifth largest Member State in terms of population and the sixth in economic terms – was unable to claim that spot. The war in Ukraine makes everyone listen to Poland now. But the harsh language and unrealistic proposals show that the country wants to show its new leadership as publicly as possible, but is not yet using mature diplomacy. As in conflicts with the EU, the narrative of victimization and hostility predominates.

There is international understanding for the emotional, existential response of Poland, which borders on Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. But that complicates a central role in the longer term. Only in the Baltic States is the fear and hatred for Russia so deep. The rest of Central Europe is adopting a more modest or even more capricious attitude.

What doesn’t help is that PiS doesn’t belong to any of the major political families in the European Parliament. In fact, a budding collaboration with other populist parties seems to have been nipped in the bud by the Russian invasion. A formal affiliation with Putin adepts like Marine Le Pen and Matteo Salvini will not reconcile PiS with Comparing Putin to Hitler, as Duda did this week. And even the romance with Viktor Orbán has cooled down. The Hungarian prime minister, who awaits elections next week, has reluctantly agreed to European sanctions against Russia, but does not want to help Ukraine in any way militarily. Poland immediately canceled the annual Polish-Hungarian Friendship Day.

Yet no one expects Poland and Hungary to let go of each other in terms of protection against Brussels interventions. They are both calling on the European Commission to thaw billions of funds that have been frozen as both countries deal with an unparalleled amount of refugees. The question is whether the European Commission is now rewarding Poland.

Poland does want financial aid, but demonstratively no redistribution of refugees across Europe. During the migration crisis of 2015, it was staunchly opposed to that and will remain so, Kaczynski said Friday. Poland opposes supranational interference in its judiciary and for refugee reception in the region. Questions of principle that cannot tolerate pragmatic solutions, even in times of war.