When Joe Biden won the US presidential election in 2020, China briefly hoped that diplomatic relations between the two superpowers would thaw. That hope was quickly dashed.
Speaking at the first Alaska summit in March 2021, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the United States and allies were determined to curb China’s growing authoritarianism and assertiveness at home and abroad. According to Blinken, China’s actions in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and Taiwan undermined the international legal order.
China was able to take over Hong Kong almost silently in the summer of 2020 – contrary to the agreements that had been made in this regard when the British colony was handed over in 1997. Trump would have preferred to shrug his shoulders as president, but under heavy pressure from the American Congress he revoked Hong Kong’s preferential trade status as a sanction.
So it’s not surprising that the Biden administration wanted to draw a line in the sand to show China that it wouldn’t be able to conquer democratically governed Taiwan just as easily.
careless
But President Biden, through a series of careless statements, has confused America’s commitment to the policy of “strategic ambiguity.” That means that the US does not recognize Taiwan’s independence, but does promise that it will help the island defend itself.
Contrary to the policy of strategic ambiguity, Biden said last November that Taiwan was independent. In May, Biden said at a press conference in Tokyo that America would militarily defend Taiwan if China attacked it.
In both cases, White House spokesmen hastened to deny that US policy toward Taiwan had changed, but Xi has been sown by doubt. The US and China were thus already on a collision course in the Taiwan Strait for the visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan confirms President Xi’s view that the US wants to change the status of the island.
The White House has clearly told Pelosi, who rolled out a banner in Tiananmen Square in 1991 in memory of the students who sacrificed their lives for democracy, why she should not go to Taiwan. But President Biden did not call Pelosi directly to ask her not to go.
According to New York Timescolumnist Thomas Friedman feared Biden would be seen as weak toward China, allowing Republicans to attack him before the midterm elections.
Reckless
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is the epitome of recklessness. In an interview with The New Yorker Shelley Rigger, who has written several books on Taiwan, described the relationship between China and Taiwan as that of a couple who have separated but have not yet filed for divorce.
China can tolerate the status quo, but not a divorce. According to Rigger, Pelosi was not invited and her visit to Taipei served mainly domestic political purposes – showing that Pelosi is daring to confront China.
China has responded to Pelosi’s visit with the largest ever military exercises around Taiwan. According to military analysts, the Chinese display of power is a turning point in the relationship between China and Taiwan. The exercises were expected to end last Monday, but China will continue with the exercises.
The US has not responded by sending a warship and bombers, as it did in 1995 when then-Taiwanese President Lee visited Washington. China can already put that in its pocket.
Meanwhile, Beijing is closely monitoring the war in Ukraine. It shows that military superiority does not automatically lead to victory and that a smaller army can successfully resist. Moreover, NATO has turned out to be much stronger than expected. But the war in Ukraine also shows that the US does not want to intervene directly militarily for fear of provoking another world war, which will undoubtedly reassure Beijing.
Pelosi should have realized that the best way to support Taiwan is to make sure Ukraine defeats Russia.
Helen Mees is an economist. She writes an exchange column with Marcia Luyten every other week.